Archive · 24 Sep 2026
Canada Examined Extreme Risk of Possible US Military Action
Canada’s prime minister was asked about Donald Trump’s repeated comments that Canada could become the 51st U.S. state.
He said the Canadian government had considered what could happen in an extremely unlikely situation involving U.S. military action.
He explained that governments must prepare for very serious risks, even when they are not expected to happen.
He called this “extreme tail risk.”
This means a rare event that could have very large consequences.
Carney said preparing for it was part of managing risk responsibly.
He also made clear that this was not the expected outcome.
The article does not say that military action is currently planned.
Prime Minister Carney said Ottawa examined the possibility of United States military action.
He was asked whether he took President Donald Trump’s comments about making Canada the 51st U.S. state seriously.
Carney said governments must prepare for unlikely but potentially severe outcomes.
He described such scenarios as “extreme tail risk” and part of responsible risk management.
Carney emphasized that military action was not considered the base-case scenario.
- Who
- Canadian Prime Minister Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump.
- What
- Ottawa examined the possibility of U.S. military action as an extreme, unlikely risk.
- Where
- Canada and the United States.
- Why
- Carney said governments have a responsibility to prepare for unlikely events with potentially severe consequences.
- Canadian leader
- Prime Minister Carney
- U.S. president mentioned
- Donald Trump
- Scenario examined
- Possible United States military action
- Risk classification
- Extreme tail risk
- Expected likelihood
- Not the base case
- Stated rationale
- Responsible risk management
- Related comments
- Trump repeatedly discussed making Canada the 51st U.S. state