Archive · 6 Jan 2026
Anonymous trader profits $410,000 betting on Maduro's ouster
An unknown trader made a lot of money by betting on the prediction market Polymarket.
They bet that the president of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, would be removed from power.
Before the event, their bets were worth about $34,000.
After the U.S. military captured Maduro, the value of these bets skyrocketed, and the trader made a profit of around $410,000.
This has caused some people to worry about insider trading and has led to discussions about new rules to prevent lawmakers from using non-public information to make bets.
Polymarket is a platform where people can bet on various real-world events, and it has faced scrutiny before for potential insider trading.
The trader's account was created last month, and they made several bets related to a U.S. invasion of Venezuela.
An anonymous trader profited $410,000 by betting on the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on Polymarket.
The trader's initial bets were worth $34,000 before the U.S. military operation on Maduro.
Venezuelan government bonds and oil company shares surged in value following Maduro's capture.
The trade has attracted scrutiny, with calls for stricter insider trading rules, including a potential ban on lawmakers betting on prediction markets.
Polymarket, the platform used for the bets, has previously faced scrutiny for potential insider trading and secured CFTC approval in September 2023.
- Who
- An anonymous trader on Polymarket
- What
- Betting on the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro
- When
- The trader made initial bets in December, with the event occurring over the weekend
- Where
- On the Polymarket platform, with the event taking place in Venezuela
- Why
- To profit from the outcome of Maduro's ouster, which surged in value after the event
- Profit
- $410,000
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Event
- Maduro's ouster
- Initial bet
- $34,000
- Bond surge
- 10 cents on the dollar
- Account creation
- Last month
- First bet
- December 27
- CFTC approval
- September 2023
