Archive · 1 Oct 2025
Analysts Bullish on Mexican Peso Amid Trade and Interest Rates
The Mexican peso, the currency of Mexico, is expected to do well in the coming months according to several financial analysts.
They believe it is a good time to invest in the peso because of Mexico's strong trade with the United States and high interest rates.
The US dollar is expected to weaken, which would further help the peso.
Since the trade war began, the peso has already increased in value.
However, some analysts caution that renegotiations of the USMCA trade agreement and a potential slowdown in the US labor market could affect the peso's performance in the future.
Analysts from Barclays and Citigroup are bullish on the Mexican peso in the short term.
Barclays forecasts a 3.5% total return for the peso in the last three months of the year.
Mexico's exports to the US hit $45.4 billion in July, up 8% year-over-year.
The peso has gained nearly 10% since the start of the global trade war.
USMCA renegotiations and a potential US labor market slowdown pose risks to the peso's long-term strength.
- Who
- Analysts from Barclays, Citigroup, and Deutsche Bank.
- What
- Discussing the short-term and medium-term outlook for the Mexican Peso.
- When
- The articles discuss the present and near future, with forecasts extending into 2026.
- Where
- The focus is on the Mexican Peso's value in relation to the US dollar.
- Why
- Positive trade relations with the US and strong carry trade dynamics are cited as reasons for optimism.
- Currency
- Mexican Peso
- Bullish Forecast
- 3.5% total return (Barclays)
- Peso Target (Year-End)
- 18 per USD (Barclays)
- Peso Performance (Since April 2)
- Nearly 10% return
- Mexico Exports to US (July)
- $45.4 billion (up 8% year-over-year)
- Mexico Effective Tariff Rate
- Around 5% (USMCA)
- Peso Target (2nd Half 2026)
- 18.5-19 per USD (Barclays)