2 hrs ago
Macquarie Rates NSE Outperform, Sees 10% Upside Despite Risks
Macquarie, a brokerage, thinks NSE shares could rise by about 10%.
It gave the National Stock Exchange of India an Outperform rating and a target price of Rs 1,965.
Macquarie expects NSE’s revenue to grow about 12% each year from FY26 to FY30.
It believes new products and businesses beyond trading fees can help NSE grow.
NSE is called “The Dominator” because it has a large market share, strong technology and deep liquidity.
However, a new Closing Auction Session may temporarily reduce some trading activity.
Macquarie also said NSE shares are more expensive than shares of international exchanges.
SAMCO Securities expects possible institutional demand and advised long-term investors to buy in stages rather than sell immediately.
Macquarie initiated coverage of the National Stock Exchange of India with an Outperform rating and a Rs 1,965 target price, implying about 10% upside.
The brokerage expects NSE revenue to grow 12% annually from FY26 to FY30, led by platform expansion, non-transaction revenue and new products.
Macquarie said NSE’s market share, technology, liquidity and profitability support its description as “The Dominator.”
The Closing Auction Session may temporarily pressure cash-equity, derivatives and Margin Trading Facility volumes as investors adjust.
Macquarie cited a premium valuation as justified by stronger growth and returns, while SAMCO Securities estimated a Rs 50–80 listing premium and advised staggered buying for long-term investors.
- Who
- Macquarie and Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research at SAMCO Securities.
- What
- Macquarie rated NSE Outperform with a Rs 1,965 target price, while SAMCO Securities discussed potential listing demand, a possible premium and staggered buying.
- Where
- The analysis concerns the National Stock Exchange of India and India’s financial market.
- When
- Macquarie’s revenue forecast covers FY26-FY30; the reports also discuss near-term effects from the Closing Auction Session.
- Why
- Macquarie expects NSE’s market position, platform expansion, non-transaction revenue and new products to support growth, although trading volumes may face near-term pressure.
Growth and upside case
Risks and caution
Business growth
Growth and upside case
Macquarie expects platform expansion, non-transaction revenue and new products to support 12% annualized revenue growth through FY26-FY30.
Risks and caution
Modest share losses in cash equities and futures and options could partly offset that growth.
Valuation
Growth and upside case
Macquarie said NSE’s premium valuation is justified by stronger growth and returns, with further re-rating possible if new products gain traction.
Risks and caution
NSE trades at a substantial premium to international exchanges, at about 30 times estimated FY29 P/E versus about 18 times for peers.
Trading activity
Growth and upside case
Growing monthly options adoption and stronger new-product traction could provide additional upside.
Risks and caution
The Closing Auction Session may weigh on cash-equity, derivatives and Margin Trading Facility volumes while investors adapt.
Investor approach
Growth and upside case
Apurva Sheth said mutual funds, insurance companies, pension funds and overseas investors could create steady institutional demand, and long-term investors should buy in stages.
Risks and caution
Investors seeking only listing gains may choose not to hold the shares after listing; Sheth advised against selling on listing day only when the investment was not solely for listing gains.
Key facts
- Macquarie rating
- Outperform
- Macquarie target price
- Rs 1,965
- Implied upside
- About 10% from the issue price
- Revenue forecast
- 12% annualized growth over FY26-FY30
- FY29 valuation
- About 30 times estimated P/E versus about 18 times for international exchanges; another estimate cited 22 times estimated EV/Ebitda and 29.5 times estimated P/E
- Target-price valuation
- About 32.5 times estimated FY29 P/E
- Potential listing premium
- Around Rs 50 to Rs 80, depending on market conditions
Quotes
Macquarie
Global brokerage house providing research coverage on NSE
“At our target price of Rs 1,965, NSE would trade at a 2.5 times PEG, broadly in line with global peers, suggesting the premium is justified on a growth-adjusted basis.”
businesstoday.in
“Upside could come from a higher P/N ratio, growing monthly options adoption, and stronger traction in new products.”
businesstoday.in
Sources
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