Archive · 7 Jan 2026
China Faces Heavy Losses in Failed Taiwan Invasion
A report says if China tries to invade Taiwan, it could lose up to 100,000 soldiers.
Taiwan might lose 50,000 soldiers and 50,000 civilians.
The US and Japan could also have many casualties.
Even if China fails, it might still control some small islands near Taiwan.
The report also looks at how other countries might react.
In a big war, some countries might freeze Chinese leaders' money or support Taiwan.
But in a smaller fight, the reactions might be less severe.
China could face up to 100,000 military casualties in a failed invasion of Taiwan.
Taiwan is projected to suffer 50,000 military and 50,000 civilian casualties.
The US and Japan could face significant casualties, with estimates of 6,000 and 1,500 respectively.
China might still control the Kinmen and Matsu Islands even if it withdraws from Taiwan.
International reactions to a major war could include freezing Chinese leaders' assets and forming alliances with Taiwan.
- Who
- China, Taiwan, United States, Japan
- What
- Potential military conflict and casualties
- When
- Not specified (hypothetical scenario)
- Where
- Taiwan and surrounding regions
- Why
- To evaluate the likely outcomes of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan
- Estimated Chinese casualties
- Up to 100,000
- Estimated Taiwanese casualties
- 100,000 (50,000 military, 50,000 civilian)
- Estimated US casualties
- 6,000 (5,000 military, 1,000 civilian)
- Estimated Japanese casualties
- 1,500 (1,000 military, 500 civilian)
- Potential Chinese territorial gains
- Kinmen and Matsu Islands
- Report author
- Zack Cooper
- Report title
- If China Attacks Taiwan
- Report publisher
- German Marshall Fund
