Archive · 15 Sep 2026
Russia’s Struggling Economy Shapes Expectations Before Parliamentary Vote
Russia is holding parliamentary elections, but few people expect the result to change the country’s leadership or war policy.
The Kremlin is using the vote to see whether people are becoming tired of the war.
In Yaroslavl, many businesses have work but cannot find enough employees.
Some residents connect this shortage to fewer young people and the effects of the war, while others do not.
Prices are rising, and loans are very expensive.
People are also buying fewer nonessential goods because their money does not go as far.
Drone attacks have caused problems for fuel supplies, factories, farms, tourism and online businesses.
The government still expects the economy to grow a little this year, although its earlier forecasts were reduced.
Local residents say they want more stability and confidence about the future.
Russia’s parliamentary elections are unlikely to produce major political change, but the Kremlin is watching for signs of war fatigue.
Businesses in Yaroslavl report severe labor shortages despite official unemployment of just above 2%.
Residents say inflation, expensive borrowing, fuel problems and weaker purchasing power are making daily life harder.
The government forecasts Russia’s economy will grow 0.6% this year after growth slowed sharply in 2025 and contracted slightly in early 2026.
Ukrainian drone attacks and the war have disrupted fuel, oil refining, retail, tourism, agriculture and e-commerce across Russia.
- Who
- Russian voters, residents and businesses, the Kremlin, the Russian government, and Ukrainian forces using drones.
- What
- Parliamentary elections are taking place as Russia faces labor shortages, inflation, weak growth, fuel disruptions and war-related economic pressures.
- When
- The elections are taking place during the week of Sept. 15; the report also discusses economic performance in 2025 and 2026.
- Where
- Yaroslavl and nearby communities in Russia, with broader effects reported across the Russian economy.
- Why
- The Kremlin views the election as a measure of public fatigue with the war, while residents and businesses are dealing with worsening economic conditions.
Government and Kremlin Outlook
Residents and Businesses’ Concerns
Economic resilience
Government and Kremlin Outlook
The government still expects Russia’s economy to grow in 2026, and local businesses say they can cope with recent tax increases if taxes do not rise again.
Residents and Businesses’ Concerns
Residents and businesses report shrinking purchasing power, high borrowing costs, rising essential prices and concerns about future instability.
Causes of labor shortages
Government and Kremlin Outlook
Official figures show very low unemployment, indicating a tight labor market rather than an explicitly stated single cause.
Residents and Businesses’ Concerns
Some residents and observers link the shortage of young workers to the war, military recruitment, casualties and declining birth rates, while some business owners avoid making that connection.
Effect of the war
Government and Kremlin Outlook
Officials have not directly attributed every local economic problem to the war, and the government continues to forecast growth.
Residents and Businesses’ Concerns
Residents and businesses say the war and related drone attacks, sanctions and security costs have contributed to fuel shortages, disrupted commerce, higher prices and reduced confidence.
- Election outlook
- Few expect the tightly controlled parliamentary election to significantly change Russian politics.
- Official unemployment
- Unemployment is just above 2%.
- Inflation and interest rates
- Inflation is just above 6%, while the central bank’s interest rate is 14%.
- Growth forecast
- The government forecasts full-year economic growth of 0.6%.
- Recent growth
- Economic growth fell to 1% in 2025 from 4.9% the previous year, followed by a slight contraction at the start of 2026.
- Labor market
- Yaroslavl businesses say they have substantial work but cannot find enough employees.
- Tourism impact
- Domestic tourism declined by 6% during the difficult summer described in the report.