Archive · 30 Jul 2026
India's Monsoon Forecast Fails Amid Climate Change
In July 2023, people in India expected little rain because a weather pattern called El Niño usually makes the monsoon dry.
But instead, some places flooded while others stayed dry.
Scientists say that global warming is changing the weather so that El Niño is not working the way it used to.
The Indian weather office’s models didn’t predict this, so they had to issue warnings for thunderstorms and floods.
This shows that the monsoon is becoming more unpredictable because of climate change.
July 2023 forecast predicted below‑normal rainfall due to El Niño, yet India received 238.2 mm, slightly above normal.
Flooding occurred in some regions while others remained 30 % below normal, showing extreme variability.
Warming in the western Pacific and changing western disturbances weakened El Niño’s expected influence.
Indian Meteorological Department scientists say current models fail to capture these new patterns.
Uttar Pradesh issued an orange alert for thunderstorms and moderate rain, highlighting increased unpredictability.
- Who
- Indian meteorologists and residents such as Sachin Sharma
- What
- Unexpected rainfall and failure of monsoon forecast
- When
- July 2023
- Where
- India, especially Noida, Uttar Pradesh, Assam
- Why
- Climate change is altering patterns and weakening El Niño’s influence
- Country
- India
- Month
- July 2023
- Rainfall Received
- 238.2 mm
- Normal Rainfall
- 233.9 mm
- El Niño Influence
- Weakened
- Forecast Accuracy
- Failed
- Floods Reported
- Yes