Archive · 25 Nov 2025
Holiday Sales Growth Driven by Inflation, Not Volume
During the holiday shopping season, it might seem like everyone is spending a lot of money.
But there's more to the story.
Wealthier people are still spending freely, while middle- and lower-income folks are also spending, even though they're struggling financially.
The reason sales numbers look good is partly because prices are high due to inflation.
This means people are spending more not because they're buying more things, but because each item costs more.
Early signs show that holiday shopping is strong, with spending up compared to last year.
Wages have gone up over the past decade, and people have more money in their accounts than before the pandemic.
This has led to more use of credit and debit cards.
However, the underlying financial stress many Americans feel isn't always visible in these sales numbers.
Wealthier shoppers are spending freely, while middle- and lower-income shoppers are also spending despite financial struggles.
Inflation is a significant contributor to sales growth, not actual sales volume.
Early holiday shopping indicators show strong spending, with household spending up 2.4% in October 2025 compared to October 2024.
Holiday-specific spending surged 5.7% year-over-year in October.
Wages have increased over the past decade, and account deposits are above pre-pandemic levels, leading to more credit and debit card use.
- Who
- American consumers, particularly wealthier and middle- to lower-income shoppers
- What
- Holiday sales growth driven by inflation, not actual sales volume
- When
- During the holiday shopping season, with early indicators showing strong spending in October 2025
- Where
- United States
- Why
- Inflation persists, forcing people to spend more, and wages have increased over the past decade, leading to more credit and debit card use
- Wealthier Shoppers
- Spending freely, unaffected by affordability crisis
- Middle- and Lower-Income Shoppers
- Spending overall, despite financial struggles
- Inflation Impact
- Contributing to sales growth, not actual sales volume
- Black Friday Numbers
- May appear rosier due to inflation
- Household Spending
- Up 2.4% in October 2025 compared to October 2024
- Holiday-Specific Spending
- Surged 5.7% year-over-year in October
- Wages
- Increased over the past decade
- Account Deposits
- Above pre-pandemic levels