Archive · 3 Aug 2026
Madden-Julian Oscillation Phase 6 Signals Drier August for India
The Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, is a big weather pattern that moves around the world’s warm oceans.
It has 8 stages, and when it is in stage 6, it usually means less rain in India.
Scientists say that because the MJO is now in stage 6, India will get less rain in August.
This could make the monsoon weaker and hurt farmers.
The weather office in India already says the monsoon will be 12% below normal.
A big climate event called El Niño is also making the weather drier, and it might keep India dry for a few more years.
MJO has entered Phase 6, moving its active convective zone to the Pacific.
Phase 6 is linked to reduced rainfall over India during August.
Accuweather forecaster Jason Nicholls predicts active West Pacific rainfall but lower Atlantic tropical development.
India Meteorological Department forecasts a 12% monsoon deficit as of 3 August.
The El Niño event is expected to worsen dryness, extending impacts into 2027.
- Who
- Jason Nicholls, Mahesh Palawat, India Meteorological Department
- What
- Madden-Julian Oscillation entering Phase 6, reducing rainfall over India
- When
- Early August 2024
- Where
- India, West Pacific, Atlantic
- Why
- Active convective zone of MJO has moved to the Pacific, lowering monsoon rainfall
- Madden-Julian Oscillation Phase
- 6
- Expected Monsoon Deficit (India)
- 12%
- Forecasting Agency
- India Meteorological Department
- Key Forecaster
- Jason Nicholls
- Climate Event
- El Niño