Archive · 23 Sep 2026
Global Agencies Raise India’s FY27 Growth Forecasts Toward 7%
Several international groups now think India’s economy could grow by about 7% in the financial year ending March 2027.
S&P, the Asian Development Bank, and Moody’s Ratings each forecast 7% growth.
Fitch forecasts slightly lower growth of 6.9%, while the OECD forecasts 7.1%.
These upgrades followed stronger-than-expected growth of 7.8% in the June quarter.
Factories, shoppers, exports, government investment, manufacturing, and services helped the economy expand.
S&P warned that growth may slow later because some tax-related benefits may become weaker.
The agencies also expect prices to remain an important concern.
Fitch expects the Reserve Bank of India could raise its policy rate by 25 basis points in October, while S&P expects a 25-basis-point increase during FY27.
S&P Global Ratings raised India’s FY27 growth forecast to 7% from 6.6%, while Fitch raised its projection to 6.9% from 6.4%.
The Asian Development Bank and Moody’s Ratings also forecast 7% growth, while the OECD raised its projection to 7.1%.
India’s June-quarter GDP growth reached 7.8%, supported by industrial activity, consumption, exports, government investment, manufacturing, and services.
S&P expects growth to moderate in the second half of FY27 as GST rationalisation and income-tax-cut benefits fade.
S&P and Fitch expect inflationary pressures could prompt the Reserve Bank of India to raise interest rates by 25 basis points.
- Who
- S&P Global Ratings, Fitch Ratings, the Asian Development Bank, Moody’s Ratings, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, and the Reserve Bank of India.
- What
- International agencies raised their forecasts for India’s FY27 GDP growth to between 6.9% and 7.1%.
- When
- The revisions were announced on Wednesday; FY27 ends March 31, 2027. The Reserve Bank of India is expected to meet on October 6–8.
- Where
- India.
- Why
- The upgrades reflected stronger-than-expected June-quarter growth, resilient domestic demand, industrial activity, exports, investment, manufacturing, services, and sustained capital inflows.
Higher Growth Outlooks
Cautious Growth and Policy Outlooks
Growth prospects
Higher Growth Outlooks
S&P, the Asian Development Bank, Moody’s Ratings, and the OECD raised their forecasts to 7%, 7%, 7%, and 7.1%, respectively, citing strong economic activity and resilient demand.
Cautious Growth and Policy Outlooks
Fitch forecasts 6.9%, while the Reserve Bank of India’s projection is 6.7%; S&P also expects growth to ease in the second half of FY27.
Interest rates
Higher Growth Outlooks
The Reserve Bank of India previously held the repo rate at 5.25% and maintained a neutral policy stance.
Cautious Growth and Policy Outlooks
S&P and Fitch expect inflationary pressures, strong demand, supply risks, and other uncertainties to lead the RBI to raise rates by 25 basis points; Fitch expects a hike in October.
Inflation outlook
Higher Growth Outlooks
The Asian Development Bank cut its FY27 inflation forecast to 5% from 5.2% and expects inflation to ease to 4% in FY28 if energy prices moderate and agricultural supplies recover.
Cautious Growth and Policy Outlooks
S&P forecasts average FY27 consumer inflation of 5.1%, while Fitch expects inflation to reach 5.5% in December amid demand and supply pressures.
- S&P forecast
- 7% for FY27, up from 6.6%
- Fitch forecast
- 6.9% for FY27, up from 6.4%, according to the reports
- Asian Development Bank forecast
- 7%, up from 6.6% in its July projection
- Moody’s forecast
- 7% for FY27; the reports describe this as the fastest forecast among G20 economies
- OECD forecast
- 7.1% for FY27, an 80-basis-point increase
- June-quarter growth
- 7.8%, driven by industrial activity, consumption, goods exports, government investment, manufacturing, and services
- Inflation outlook
- S&P forecasts average consumer inflation of 5.1% in FY27; Fitch expects headline inflation to reach 5.5% in December
- RBI position
- The RBI previously projected FY27 growth at 6.7%, kept the repo rate at 5.25%, and retained a neutral stance
