Archive · 18 Dec 2025
Santa Rally Expected to Boost Small-Cap Stocks
The Santa Claus Rally is expected to boost small and mid-cap stocks in the last five days of 2025 and the first two days of 2026.
Historically, small-cap stocks have seen an average return of 3.55% during this period, while mid-cap stocks have averaged 2.63%.
However, small-cap stocks have struggled in 2025, with the Nifty Smallcap 100 index down 9% year-to-date.
Experts believe this weakness could be a good time to invest in quality small-cap stocks for the long term.
The rally is driven by positive sentiment and year-end positioning rather than underlying fundamentals.
Technical analysts note that the index is attempting to stabilize, but near-term volatility is likely to continue.
Investors are advised to be selective and focus on quality stocks.
Santa Claus Rally expected to drive gains in small and mid-cap stocks in the last 5 trading sessions of 2025 and first 2 of 2026.
Small-cap stocks have averaged a 3.55% return with a 100% success rate over the past decade during this period.
Nifty Smallcap 100 index down 9% year-to-date in 2025, after strong performances in 2023 and 2024.
Experts believe the current weakness in small-cap stocks presents a favorable entry point for long-term investors.
Technical analysts note that the index is attempting to stabilize, but near-term volatility is likely to continue.
- Who
- SAMCO Securities, Market Experts, Technical Analysts
- What
- Predicts Santa Claus Rally to drive gains in small and mid-cap stocks, while noting the underperformance and potential opportunities in small-cap stocks
- When
- Last 5 trading sessions of 2025 and first 2 of 2026
- Where
- India
- Why
- Due to thinner volumes, year-end portfolio adjustments by institutions, and historical performance data
Optimistic View
Cautious View
Market Performance
Optimistic View
The Santa Claus Rally is expected to drive gains in small and mid-cap stocks, with historical data showing significant returns during this period.
Cautious View
Small-cap stocks have underperformed in 2025, with the Nifty Smallcap 100 index down 9% year-to-date, indicating potential risks and volatility.
Investment Timing
Optimistic View
Experts believe the current weakness in small-cap stocks presents a favorable entry point for long-term investors, with valuations cooling and the segment becoming healthier.
Cautious View
Analysts warn that near-term volatility is likely to continue, and the recovery will depend on earnings strength, liquidity conditions, and disciplined valuations.
- Santa Claus Rally
- Last 5 trading sessions of 2025 and first 2 of 2026
- Small-Cap Average Return
- 3.55% with 100% success rate
- Midcap Average Return
- 2.63% with 90% success rate
- Large-Cap Average Return
- 1.78% over the past decade
- Nifty Smallcap 100 YTD Performance
- Down 9%
- Nifty Smallcap 100 2024 Performance
- Up 24%
- Nifty Smallcap 100 2023 Performance
- Up 56%
- Key Support Level
- 16,800–16,700
- Key Resistance Level
- 18,800–19,000
Sources
Jefferies 2026 outlook: Nifty at 28,300 by next December, 6 sectors set to lead the charge
FPI trends decoded: What foreign money is buying and selling in India
Santa Claus rally to drive gains in small and mid-cap stocks
Stock market today: Trade set up for Nifty 50 to Indian Rupee; 8 stocks to buy or sell on Thursday — 18 December 2025
Global uncertainty could create a 3–5% downside, warns Sushant Bhansali; sees small-cap stocks reviving in 2026
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