Archive · 28 Jul 2026
US Treasury yields fall as oil prices drop
On Monday, U.S. Treasury yields went down because oil prices dropped a lot.
This happened after the U.S. stopped some military actions against Iran and President Trump said there might be peace talks.
Even though oil prices fell, some countries in the Middle East still had problems with drone attacks.
People who invest money are trying to figure out what the Federal Reserve, the group that controls interest rates, will do.
Some think the Fed might raise interest rates because of higher oil prices, while others think the Fed might wait or even lower rates.
The prices of different types of U.S. Treasury bonds changed based on these expectations.
The chance of a rate hike in July is about 38%, and in September, it's about 81%.
The market also shows that people expect inflation to be around 2.2% over the next ten years.
U.S. Treasury yields fell as oil prices plummeted due to hopes of U.S.-Iran peace talks.
The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.647%, and the 30-year bond yield fell to 5.129%.
U.S. crude prices dropped 7.71% to $82.42 per barrel, and Brent crude fell 8.9% to $88.17 per barrel.
Fed rate hike expectations rose to 37.9% for July and 80.8% for September.
The 2-year Treasury yield slipped to 4.32%, with mixed results for 2-year and 5-year auctions.
- Who
- U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve, President Donald Trump, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq
- What
- U.S. Treasury yields fell as oil prices plummeted, affecting inflation expectations and Fed rate hike probabilities.
- When
- July 27
- Where
- United States, Middle East
- Why
- Oil prices dropped due to hopes of peace talks between the U.S. and Iran, reducing inflation concerns and affecting Treasury yields.
Market Optimists
Market Pessimists
Fed Rate Hike Expectations
Market Optimists
Expect a rate hike due to rising oil prices and inflation concerns.
Market Pessimists
Believe the Fed will pause or lower rates due to market uncertainty.
- 10-year Treasury yield
- 4.647%
- U.S. crude price
- $82.42 per barrel
- Brent crude price
- $88.17 per barrel
- Fed rate hike probability (July)
- 37.9%
- Fed rate hike probability (September)
- 80.8%
- 2-year Treasury yield
- 4.32%
- 30-year bond yield
- 5.129%
- 5-year TIPS breakeven rate
- 2.202%
- 10-year TIPS breakeven rate
- 2.212%
