Archive · 9 Jan 2026
New START Nuclear Treaty Expiry
The New START treaty, which limits the number of nuclear warheads that the United States and Russia can have, is about to expire on February 5.
This treaty has been important for keeping nuclear arms under control.
Russian President Putin has suggested extending the treaty for another year, but the U.S. President Trump hasn't responded yet.
Some experts think extending the treaty could buy time and show a commitment to arms control, while others worry it might let Russia develop new weapons and send the wrong message to China.
China, which is building up its own nuclear arsenal, doesn't want to join talks with the U.S. and Russia.
Experts say it might be better to focus on reducing the risk of accidents and building trust before trying to make a new, complex treaty.
Trump has expressed little concern over the treaty's expiration, preferring to negotiate a new agreement that includes China.
China has rejected this proposal, asserting that its nuclear arsenal is much smaller than those of the U.S. and Russia.
Trump also emphasized that his own morality would guide his decisions, not necessarily international law.
The New START nuclear treaty between the U.S. and Russia is set to expire on February 5, with no successor treaty in sight.
Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed a 12-month extension to the treaty, but U.S. President Donald Trump has not yet responded.
Experts are divided on whether to accept Putin's offer, with some seeing it as a way to buy time and others concerned about Russia's development of new weapons and the message it sends to China.
China's growing nuclear arsenal is a significant concern, with the Pentagon estimating it will have over 1,000 warheads by 2030, and Beijing rejecting calls to join three-way disarmament talks.
Experts suggest focusing on risk reduction and confidence-building measures to prevent accidental nuclear war, as a new multilateral treaty would be complex and time-consuming.
- Who
- United States, Russia, China
- What
- Expiry of the New START nuclear treaty and discussions on its extension and successor
- When
- February 5, 2026 (expiry date)
- Where
- Global, with focus on the United States, Russia, and China
- Why
- To maintain nuclear arms control and prevent an uncontrolled arms race, while addressing the growing nuclear arsenals of other countries, particularly China
- Treaty Expiry Date
- February 5, 2026
- Current Warhead Limits
- 1,550 per side
- US Nuclear Warheads
- 5,177
- Russian Nuclear Warheads
- 5,459
- Chinese Nuclear Warheads
- 600 (estimated)
- China's Projected Warheads by 2030
- 1,000+
- Trump's Stance on Treaty Extension
- Unconcerned, prefers a new agreement
- China's Response to Inclusion
- Rejected, citing smaller arsenal
Sources
The last Russia-US nuclear treaty is about to expire. What happens next?
The last Russia-US nuclear treaty is about to expire. What happens next?
What Happens When Last US–Russia Nuclear Arms Treaty Expires?
‘If it expires, it expires,’ Trump tells NYT about US-Russia nuclear treaty
Trump unfazed over US-Russia nuclear treaty expiration, wants China in ‘better’ deal; Beijing reacts
'If It Expires, It Expires': Donald Trump On US-Russia New START Nuclear Treaty
If It Expires, It Expires : Trump Tells NYT About US-Russia Nuclear Treaty
