Archive · 11 Jun 2025
US Oil Production Expected to Fall in 2026, EIA Predicts
The US is projected to produce less oil in 2026.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects a drop to 13.37 million barrels a day.
This decline is due to fewer active drilling rigs and a slowdown in shale production, especially in the Permian Basin.
Oil companies are drilling and completing fewer wells through 2026.
Shale production is expected to be about 11.09 million barrels a day.
Meanwhile, offshore oil production is expected to grow slightly.
Global oil demand is expected to grow more slowly.
The EIA also projects an inventory buildup this year.
The US is projected to decrease oil production in 2026.
The EIA forecasts a drop to 13.37 million barrels/day.
Shale production is slowing down.
Offshore oil production is expected to increase.
Global oil demand growth is slowing.
- Who
- The US Energy Information Administration (EIA)
- What
- The EIA predicts a decrease in US oil production in 2026.
- When
- The EIA released the information on June 11, 2025; the production decline is projected for 2026.
- Where
- United States, particularly in shale regions.
- Why
- Due to fewer active drilling rigs and slowing shale production.
- Projected 2026 Output
- 13.37 million barrels/day
- Previous 2025 Projection
- 13.42 million barrels/day
- Shale Production 2026
- 11.09 million barrels/day
- Offshore Output 2026
- 1.85 million barrels/day
- Global Demand Growth
- 800,000 barrels/day
- Inventory Buildup
- 800,000 barrels/day