Archive · 6 Nov 2025
India's Solar Module Capacity to Jump 50% by FY27, Study Predicts
India is building a lot more factories to make solar panels.
Right now, these factories can make about 109 gigawatts of panels, but by March 2027, they expect to make over 165 gigawatts!
This big jump is thanks to government help, like rules that encourage making panels in India and help for companies that produce them.
Companies are also building more factories to make the smaller parts, like solar cells.
However, there's a concern that India might make more solar panels than it can actually install each year.
This could mean too many panels and not enough buyers, which might hurt the smaller companies.
Also, new rules in the US have made it harder to sell panels there, so more panels are being sold in India, adding to the competition.
Many parts needed to make these panels still come from China, which could be a problem if there are issues with that supply.
Even though factories are growing, the money companies make might not be as high as before because of all the competition and potential oversupply.
India's solar module manufacturing capacity is projected to rise to over 165 GW by March 2027, a 50% increase from the current ~109 GW.
Growth is driven by government policies including the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM), customs duties, and the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme.
Cell manufacturing capacity is also expected to surge, reaching approximately 100 GW by December 2027.
The industry faces potential overcapacity as annual production may exceed annual installations, alongside challenges from US tariffs impacting exports.
Concerns exist regarding dependence on China for key components like wafers and ingots, and potential moderation of profitability due to competitive pressures.
- Who
- Icra (an Indian financial services company)
- What
- Reported that India's solar photovoltaic (PV) module manufacturing capacity is projected to increase significantly, but warned of potential overcapacity and challenges.
- When
- Report released; capacity expected to grow by March 2027.
- Where
- India
- Why
- Growth is driven by government policies like ALMM, customs duties, and PLI schemes, while challenges arise from US tariffs, supply chain dependency on China, and potential overcapacity.
Challenges & Risks
Growth Drivers & Opportunities
Market Capacity and Competition
Challenges & Risks
India faces potential overcapacity with annual module production (60-65 GW) exceeding expected installations (45-50 GW), leading to consolidation among smaller players.
Growth Drivers & Opportunities
Manufacturing capacity is set to increase by 50% to over 165 GW by FY27, driven by strong policy support like ALMM, customs duties, and PLI schemes.
Export Market Impact
Challenges & Risks
Recent US tariffs have negatively impacted export volumes, redirecting modules to the domestic market and creating pricing pressures.
Growth Drivers & Opportunities
While facing US tariff challenges, the growth in domestic capacity and strong policy support are expected to bolster the sector.
Supply Chain Dependency
Challenges & Risks
The industry is heavily dependent on China (over 90% share) for polysilicon and wafers, posing risks from potential geopolitical restrictions on technology and machinery.
Growth Drivers & Opportunities
Vertically integrated manufacturers are expected to benefit long-term due to greater control over the supply chain, despite current dependencies.
Profitability and Pricing
Challenges & Risks
Operating profitability for domestic solar OEMs, though high at ~25% in FY25, is likely to moderate due to competitive pressures and overcapacity, with modules using domestic cells potentially being 3-4 cents/watt more expensive.
Growth Drivers & Opportunities
Strong policy support is driving expansion and could create opportunities for integrated players, though overall profitability may moderate.
- Current Solar Module Manufacturing Capacity
- ~109 GW
- Projected Solar Module Manufacturing Capacity by March 2027
- Over 165 GW
- Projected Solar PV Cell Manufacturing Capacity by December 2027
- ~100 GW
- Expected Annual Solar Capacity Installation
- 45-50 GWdc
- Expected Annual Solar Module Production
- 60-65 GW
- Estimated Higher Cost for Modules using Domestic Cells
- 3-4 cents/watt
- Current Operating Profitability of Domestic Solar OEMs (FY25)
- ~25%
- China's Share in Global Polysilicon and Wafer Manufacturing
- Over 90%
Sources
Solar manufacturing capacity set to exceed 125 GW by 2025, raising overcapacity concerns
India’s solar module production three times the domestic demand, experts flag oversupply risks
India's solar boom could create a ₹3,700 crore recycling market in 2047: CEEW
India’s Solar Panel Recycling Market to Reach Rs 3,700 Crore by 2047, Offering Major Green Industrial Opportunity