Archive · 28 Sep 2026
Strengthening El Niño Raises India Climate and Crop Risks
El Niño happens when parts of the Pacific Ocean become unusually warm.
Scientists say this El Niño is getting stronger.
They expect it could become very strong in late 2026 and early 2027.
El Niño can sometimes bring India less monsoon rain and a warmer, drier winter.
That can make it harder for crops and water supplies.
Another ocean pattern, called the Indian Ocean Dipole, may reduce some of these effects.
However, scientists say the forecast does not precisely predict India’s rainfall or harvest.
India’s Agriculture Secretary said the winter crop season may be especially difficult in areas without irrigation.
He also warned that unusual heavy rain and dry periods are already harming crops.
The International Research Institute forecasts very strong El Niño conditions through the 2026–27 winter.
The Niño 3.4 index reached 3.0 degrees Celsius in mid-September, according to the forecast.
El Niño probability is projected at 100% through February 2027, declining to 61% by mid-2027.
A strongly positive Indian Ocean Dipole could partly offset El Niño’s effects on India’s monsoon.
India’s Agriculture Secretary warned that rainfed rabi crops and foodgrain production could face significant challenges.
- Who
- The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, climate experts, and India’s Agriculture Secretary Atish Chandra.
- What
- A forecast says El Niño may become very strong, while Indian officials warn of risks to rabi crops and foodgrain production.
- When
- The forecast was published on September 21; the strongest conditions are expected in late 2026 and early 2027, with rabi sowing beginning in October.
- Where
- The El Niño conditions concern the Pacific Ocean, while the main expected impacts discussed are in India.
- Why
- El Niño can weaken India’s monsoon and produce warmer, drier conditions, increasing stress on crops and water supplies.
Elevated Risk Warning
Forecast Limitations and Possible Offsetting Factors
Expected impact on India
Elevated Risk Warning
The International Research Institute’s very strong El Niño outlook signals elevated climate risk, while Agriculture Secretary Atish Chandra warned that rabi production and foodgrain output could be substantially affected.
Forecast Limitations and Possible Offsetting Factors
Experts said the forecast alone cannot provide a precise prediction of India’s rainfall or agricultural output.
Role of other climate patterns
Elevated Risk Warning
El Niño is commonly associated with weaker monsoon rainfall, warmer and drier winters, and greater stress on crops and water availability in India.
Forecast Limitations and Possible Offsetting Factors
A strongly positive Indian Ocean Dipole can sometimes offset El Niño’s effects, and India’s outcome also depends on monsoon circulation, regional sea-surface temperatures, and winter weather patterns.
- El Niño outlook
- All 22 surveyed models forecast very strong conditions through the 2026–27 winter.
- Niño 3.4 index
- The index reached +3.0 degrees Celsius in mid-September.
- Probability
- The forecast assigns a 100% El Niño probability through February 2027 and 61% by mid-2027.
- Indian Ocean Dipole
- The IOD is expected to become strongly positive from September through December 2026, then move toward neutral conditions.
- Indian agriculture
- Rainfed rabi areas may face difficulty, and foodgrain production could be affected.
- Rabi crops
- Wheat and mustard sowing begins in October.
- Additional risks
- Excess soil moisture, deficient rainfall, untimely rain, and heavy rain may damage crops.