Archive · 9 Jan 2026
India's Inflation Trends and Economic Outlook
India's inflation rate is going up a bit after being very low for a few months.
In December, it was 1.45%, which is higher than November and October.
This is still below the government's target of 4%.
The prices of food, especially vegetables and eggs, are a big part of why inflation is changing.
Experts think inflation will stay low for a while but will go up to 4% in the next few years.
The way they measure inflation is also changing, which might make the numbers look different.
The government will release the official numbers soon.
December retail inflation estimated at 1.45%, up from 0.71% in November and 0.25% in October.
Inflation remains below RBI's 4% target for the 11th consecutive month.
Food deflation is narrowing, driven by higher vegetable and egg prices.
Core inflation, excluding food and fuel, projected between 4.3% and 4.5%.
Experts predict headline inflation to average 3.3% in Q4 FY26 and 4% in FY27.
- Who
- Economists and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)
- What
- Inflation trends and economic outlook in India
- When
- December 2023 and projections for FY26 and FY27
- Where
- India
- Why
- To understand the current and future state of inflation and its impact on the economy
- December Retail Inflation
- 1.45% year-on-year
- November Retail Inflation
- 0.71% year-on-year
- October Retail Inflation
- 0.25% year-on-year
- RBI's Target Range
- 2-6%
- Food Inflation Range
- (-)1.1% to (-)2.1%
- Core Inflation Range
- 4.3% to 4.5%
- Q4 FY26 Inflation Average
- 3.3%
- FY26 Annual Inflation Average
- 2.1%
- FY27 Annual Inflation Average
- 4%
Sources
India’s Goldilocks economy isn’t serving everybody well—deflation has left rural parts in distress
Depressed prices key reason behind low agri GVA growth
December retail inflation around 1.45%: FE Poll
Resumption of e-auction of wheat sales hits millers as price dips
