Archive · 8 Dec 2025
Japan bond yields rise on rate hike expectations
Japanese government bond yields have gone up to their highest levels in many years.
This is because people who trade bonds think that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will raise interest rates at their next meeting.
The BOJ's governor has said they will consider this, and the government seems okay with it.
The yields on different types of bonds, like 10-year and 30-year bonds, have all gone up.
Some experts think the yields might not keep going up, but most people think the BOJ will raise rates.
The BOJ is expected to meet on December 18-19 to decide.
Japanese government bond yields reached multi-year highs due to expectations of a BOJ rate hike.
Markets assign an 80% probability to a 25-basis-point rate hike at the December 19 BOJ meeting.
Benchmark 10-year JGB yield rose to 1.955%, its highest since July 2007.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated policymakers would consider tightening policy at the upcoming meeting.
The government is reported to tolerate a December rate hike, with the BOJ expected to raise the policy rate to 0.75% from 0.5%.
- Who
- Bank of Japan (BOJ), Japanese government, bond market traders
- What
- Surge in Japanese government bond yields due to expectations of a BOJ rate hike
- When
- December 18-19 (upcoming BOJ meeting)
- Where
- Japan
- Why
- Markets anticipate a 25-basis-point rate hike by the BOJ, with government tolerance for such a move
- Benchmark 10-year JGB yield
- 1.955%
- Two-year JGB yield
- 1.055%
- Five-year JGB yield
- 1.44%
- 20-year JGB yield
- 2.945%
- 30-year JGB yield
- 3.38%
- Expected BOJ rate hike
- 25 basis points
- BOJ meeting date
- December 18-19
- Current BOJ policy rate
- 0.5%
- Expected new BOJ policy rate
- 0.75%