Archive · 20 Jul 2026
Europe's diesel inventories at decade low
Europe is running out of diesel.
Experts say the amount of diesel stored in Europe will be the lowest in at least ten years by November.
This is because there are many problems with getting diesel, like shipping issues and attacks on refineries.
Diesel is very important for trucks, farms, and factories.
Because of these problems, the price of diesel has gone up a lot.
Experts say that the market has already factored in these issues, so prices might not go up much more.
They also say that the main problem is not getting enough oil, but turning that oil into diesel.
Europe's diesel inventories are expected to hit a decade-low seasonal level by November.
Multiple supply disruptions, including shipping issues and attacks on refineries, are contributing to the shortage.
Refining capacity is the biggest constraint in the oil market, driving up fuel prices.
Diesel is crucial for freight transport, agriculture, construction, and manufacturing.
The market has already priced in much of the expected supply deficit, limiting further price increases.
- Who
- Morgan Stanley analysts led by Martijn Rats
- What
- Europe's diesel inventories are expected to hit a decade-low seasonal level
- When
- Expected to reach around 299 million barrels in November
- Where
- Europe
- Why
- Due to multiple supply disruptions and refining constraints
Supply Constraints
Market Pricing
Supply Disruptions
Supply Constraints
Multiple supply disruptions, including shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, and Russia's diesel export ban, are contributing to Europe's diesel shortage.
Market Pricing
The market has already priced in much of the expected supply deficit, suggesting limited room for further price increases.
Refining Capacity
Supply Constraints
The biggest constraint in the oil market is refining capacity, not crude supply, leading to higher fuel prices.
Market Pricing
Despite the tightening outlook, investors are cautioned against expecting significant further rallies in diesel prices from current levels.
- Expected Inventory Level
- 299 million barrels in November
- Lowest Inventory Level Since
- 2015
- Primary Fuel Uses
- Freight transport, agriculture, construction, manufacturing
- Refining Margins
- Record highs in Northwest Europe
- China's Role
- Reduced crude processing rates, limiting global product availability