Archive · 20 Jul 2026
Rainfall Distribution Key to Food Prices: SBI Report
A report by the State Bank of India says that below-normal rainfall doesn't always mean higher food prices.
What matters more is how the rain is spread out across different months and regions.
For example, in 2018, even though there was less rain overall, food prices didn't go up much because the rain was well-distributed.
The report also looked at data from 2000 to 2026 and found that other factors, like government policies, can also affect food prices.
So, just looking at the total amount of rain isn't enough to predict food price changes.
Below-normal rainfall does not necessarily lead to higher food prices; spatial and monthly distribution is more critical.
Historical data shows no direct relationship between deficient rainfall and sharp rises in food prices.
Well-distributed rainfall can support agricultural output even with overall below-normal rainfall.
In 2018, despite below-average rainfall, food inflation remained stable due to better spatial distribution.
The sharp rise in food inflation in 2009 was attributed to a combination of factors, including higher MSP, pay commission recommendations, and a national loan waiver.
- Who
- State Bank of India (SBI)
- What
- Report on the impact of rainfall distribution on food inflation.
- When
- Historical analysis from 2000 to 2026, with specific examples from 2009 and 2018.
- Where
- India
- Why
- To understand the relationship between rainfall patterns and food prices, emphasizing the importance of spatial and monthly distribution.
Rainfall Distribution
Overall Rainfall Deficit
Impact on Food Inflation
Rainfall Distribution
Well-distributed rainfall can support agricultural output and mitigate food price increases, even if overall rainfall is below normal.
Overall Rainfall Deficit
Overall rainfall deficit is often perceived as a direct cause of higher food prices.
- Report Author
- State Bank of India (SBI)
- Key Finding
- Spatial and monthly distribution of rainfall is more critical than overall rainfall deficit for food inflation.
- Example Year
- 2018: Below-average rainfall but no significant food inflation due to better spatial distribution.
- El Nino Year Exception
- 2009: Food inflation reached 13.1% due to a combination of factors, not just rainfall.
- Historical Analysis Period
- 2000 to 2026