Archive · 23 Jul 2026
Jio vs Airtel: Investment Prospects Decoded
Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel are two major telecom companies in India.
Macquarie, a brokerage firm, thinks they offer different investment opportunities.
Jio is finishing its big network investments and will start making more money.
Airtel is already good at making money and managing its investments well.
Both companies are expected to grow their earnings by about 12% over the next few years.
Jio might also have opportunities outside of telecom, like expanding its network technology internationally.
Airtel continues to lead in making the most out of its investments.
Together, they are well-positioned to benefit from higher prices, more data usage, and investments in India's digital future.
Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel offer distinct investment propositions.
Jio is transitioning to cash flow generation after completing network rollouts.
Airtel leads in returns, capital efficiency, and cash generation.
Both companies forecast 12% EBITDA CAGR over the next three years.
Jio has potential in international deployment and fixed broadband.
- Who
- Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel
- What
- Investment prospects and future growth strategies
- When
- Forecasts for FY26 to FY29
- Where
- India
- Why
- To benefit from higher tariffs, rising data usage, and continued investment in India’s digital economy
Jio's Growth and Optionality
Airtel's Returns and Efficiency
Investment Phase
Jio's Growth and Optionality
Jio is transitioning from investment-led growth to cash flow generation after completing major network rollouts.
Airtel's Returns and Efficiency
Airtel maintains a structural advantage with higher return on invested capital (ROIC) and disciplined capital allocation.
Revenue Growth
Jio's Growth and Optionality
Jio is expected to deliver 11-12% revenue CAGR between FY26 and FY29, driven by subscriber additions and ARPU growth.
Airtel's Returns and Efficiency
Airtel is projected to improve its ROIC to 21% in FY29 from 13% in FY26, with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio declining to 0.2 times by FY29.
Subscriber Growth
Jio's Growth and Optionality
Jio's subscriber base is forecasted to increase to 553 million by FY29 from 524 million in FY26.
Airtel's Returns and Efficiency
Airtel's subscriber base is expected to rise to 388 million from 373 million over the same period.
ARPU Growth
Jio's Growth and Optionality
Jio's monthly ARPU is projected to improve to Rs 259 from Rs 212.
Airtel's Returns and Efficiency
Airtel's ARPU is expected to increase to Rs 318 from Rs 256.
Future Opportunities
Jio's Growth and Optionality
Jio has potential in international deployment of network technology, fixed broadband, and the JioBharat ecosystem.
Airtel's Returns and Efficiency
Airtel continues to lead in returns, capital efficiency, and cash generation.
- EBITDA CAGR
- 12% for both Jio and Airtel over the next three years
- FY29 EBITDA
- $12-13 billion for both companies
- Jio's Free Cash Flow
- $5-6 billion annually by FY29
- Airtel's ROIC
- 21% in FY29 from 13% in FY26
- Jio's ROIC
- 11% in FY29 from 7% in FY26
- Airtel's Net Debt-to-EBITDA Ratio
- 0.2 times by FY29 from 1.4 times in FY26
- Jio's Net Debt-to-EBITDA Ratio
- 1.2 times by FY29 from 2.4 times in FY26
- Tariff Increases
- Two industry-wide tariff increases of 8-10% each following Jio’s proposed listing