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Global Credit Agencies Raise India's GDP Growth Outlook Amid Resilience
Global agencies think India may grow faster than they previously expected.
S&P expects 7% growth in FY27, while Fitch expects 6.9%.
Moody's also expects 7% growth.
Their optimism followed India's stronger-than-expected 7.8% growth in the April-June quarter.
People in India are still spending, which helps businesses and the economy.
Government spending and possible increases in private investment are also supporting growth.
Goods exports added another source of economic activity.
India has continued growing despite geopolitical tensions and higher energy prices.
However, inflation, expensive oil and food-price pressures could still create problems.
S&P Global Ratings raised India's FY27 growth forecast to 7% from 6.6%.
Fitch Ratings increased its projection to 6.9% from 6.4%, while Moody's raised its forecast to 7%.
India's economy grew 7.8% year-on-year in the April-June quarter of FY27.
Strong consumption, government investment, private investment, exports and industrial activity supported growth.
Agencies remain cautious about higher energy prices, inflation, El Niño-related food pressures and possible interest-rate increases.
- Who
- India, global credit agencies including S&P Global Ratings, Fitch Ratings and Moody's, and economist Dr Abhinav P Tripathi.
- What
- Global institutions raised their forecasts for India's FY27 GDP growth after stronger-than-expected economic performance.
- Where
- India.
- When
- The upgrades followed India's April-June quarter FY27 GDP results; Moody's revision was reported as occurring the previous week.
- Why
- Stronger domestic growth, consumption, investment, exports and resilience to external shocks increased confidence, although inflation and energy-price risks remain.
Growth Optimism
Risks and Caution
Economic outlook
Growth Optimism
Stronger-than-expected quarterly growth, resilient consumption, investment, exports and industrial activity support higher forecasts.
Risks and Caution
The upgrades are not a guarantee of smooth growth because geopolitical tensions, trade pressures and external shocks remain risks.
Inflation and interest rates
Growth Optimism
Relatively limited pass-through of higher global energy prices to retail fuel prices and benign underlying inflation have supported household purchasing power.
Risks and Caution
Higher oil prices, possible El Niño-related food inflation and stronger demand could increase price pressures; S&P and Fitch expect a 25-basis-point policy-rate increase.
Key facts
- S&P forecast
- FY27 growth raised to 7% from 6.6%
- Fitch forecast
- FY27 growth raised to 6.9% from 6.4%
- Moody's forecast
- FY27 growth raised to 7% from 6%
- June-quarter growth
- GDP grew 7.8% year-on-year in April-June of FY27
- Investment outlook
- Fitch expects investment to rise by more than 10% during FY27
- Credit growth
- Non-food credit growth reached 19% year-on-year in July, according to Fitch
- Inflation outlook
- S&P expects FY27 inflation to average 5.1%
Quotes
Dr Abhinav P Tripathi
Senior economist quoted by NDTV
“The answer lies in a combination of stronger-than-expected domestic growth, resilient consumption, investment and India's ability to absorb external shocks”
NDTV
“In other words, the ratings agencies are more optimistic about the starting point for FY27. They are not saying the year will be completely smooth.”
NDTV
Sources
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