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BJP’s Uttar Pradesh Rise, Peak and 2024 Setback
The BJP became very strong in Uttar Pradesh in 2014.
It won many seats again in the 2017 state election and the 2019 national election.
Its performance weakened somewhat in the 2022 state election.
In the 2024 national election, the Samajwadi Party won more seats than the BJP in the state.
The SP tried to attract OBC, Dalit, Muslim and upper-caste voters with a broad mix of candidates.
The BJP’s support was affected by concerns among some OBCs, Dalits, Thakurs and Brahmins.
The BJP still has a large base and wants to recover before the next state election.
The SP must show that its 2024 success can continue.
The election will test which party can build the wider coalition in Uttar Pradesh.
The BJP won 71 of Uttar Pradesh’s 80 Lok Sabha seats in 2014, with a 42.63% vote share.
The BJP dominated the 2017 Assembly election, winning 312 seats with 40.54% of the vote.
In 2019, the BJP reached its state peak with 62 Lok Sabha seats and nearly 50% of the vote.
The BJP retained power in 2022 but fell to 255 Assembly seats, while the SP rose to 111.
In 2024, the SP won 37 Lok Sabha seats against the BJP’s 33, amid concerns about OBC, Dalit and some upper-caste support.
- Who
- The Bharatiya Janata Party and the Samajwadi Party are the principal parties discussed, alongside the Bahujan Samaj Party and several alliance partners.
- What
- The article traces the BJP’s electoral rise in Uttar Pradesh from 2014, its peak in 2019, its reduced majority in 2022 and its 2024 Lok Sabha setback.
- Where
- Uttar Pradesh, India.
- When
- The comparison covers the 2014, 2017, 2019, 2022 and 2024 elections; Uttar Pradesh is expected to vote again within months.
- Why
- The BJP is seeking to reverse declining results, while the SP is trying to build on its 2024 gains through broader caste and community outreach.
Samajwadi Party’s Expansion
BJP’s Recovery Bid
Meaning of the 2024 result
Samajwadi Party’s Expansion
The SP’s PDA outreach and candidate mix helped it win 37 seats and edge past the BJP in Uttar Pradesh.
BJP’s Recovery Bid
The BJP’s 33 seats represented a setback, but the party still retained a substantial vote share and may be able to reverse the decline.
Social coalition
Samajwadi Party’s Expansion
The SP broadened beyond its traditional Muslim-Yadav base by emphasizing non-Yadav OBCs, Dalits and selected upper-caste candidates.
BJP’s Recovery Bid
The BJP’s previous victories came from combining non-Yadav OBC and Dalit support with continued backing among upper castes and Hindu social groups.
Main electoral challenge
Samajwadi Party’s Expansion
The SP must prove that its 2024 gains can be sustained in the state election.
BJP’s Recovery Bid
The BJP must address reported unease among youth, some OBCs and Dalits, and sections of the Thakur and Brahmin communities.
Key facts
- 2014 Lok Sabha result
- BJP won 71 of 80 Uttar Pradesh seats; Apna Dal won two, SP five and Congress two.
- 2017 Assembly result
- BJP won 312 of the 384 seats it contested in the 403-seat Assembly, with 40.54% of the vote.
- 2019 Lok Sabha result
- BJP won 62 of the 78 seats it contested and recorded nearly 50% of the vote.
- 2022 Assembly result
- BJP won 255 seats with 42.2% of the vote; SP won 111 with 32.76%.
- 2024 Lok Sabha result
- SP won 37 seats and BJP won 33 in Uttar Pradesh; BJP vote share fell to 41.67%.
- BJP candidate strategy
- The BJP emphasized non-Yadav OBC representation while continuing to field Brahmin and Thakur candidates.
- SP candidate strategy
- In 2024, SP fielded five Yadavs, 27 non-Yadav OBCs, nine Kurmis and a broad mix of Dalit and upper-caste candidates.
Sources
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