Archive · 30 Sep 2026
India’s 2026 Southwest Monsoon Ranks Fourth-Lowest Since 2001
India had much less rain than usual during the 2026 summer monsoon season.
Rainfall was only 87% of the long-term average.
This matters because the monsoon provides more than 70% of India’s yearly rain.
Less rain can make it harder for farmers to grow crops and earn money.
Farmers planted less land overall, and rice planting fell compared with last year.
Experts worry that weak rain could also affect winter crops and raise food prices.
The India Meteorological Department expects normal rain in peninsular India from October to December.
However, it expects October rainfall to be below normal across India, while strong El Niño conditions may continue affecting weather patterns.
Southwest monsoon rainfall reached 87% of the long-period average, totaling 759.4 mm from June through September.
The 2026 monsoon was the fourth-lowest since 2001 and the 13th-lowest since 1901, according to the India Meteorological Department.
Rainfall was sharply below normal in June and August, while July was slightly wetter than normal and September remained deficient.
Kharif sowing reached 110.39 million hectares, down about 1.5 million hectares from last year, with rice acreage falling 3.7%.
The India Meteorological Department expects normal October-December rainfall in peninsular India, but below-normal rainfall nationally in October.
- Who
- The India Meteorological Department, farmers, agricultural experts and Indian policymakers are involved.
- What
- India recorded a deficient 2026 southwest monsoon, with rainfall at 87% of the long-period average.
- When
- The southwest monsoon season ran from June through September 2026; it arrived in Kerala on 4 June.
- Where
- The rainfall deficit affected India, while the post-monsoon outlook specifically covers peninsular India.
- Why
- The weak monsoon was associated with expected strengthening El Niño conditions and could affect crop yields, farm incomes, rural demand and food prices.
IMD Outlook
Agricultural Risk Warnings
Post-monsoon rainfall
IMD Outlook
The India Meteorological Department expects normal October-December rainfall over peninsular India, with some areas potentially receiving normal to above-normal rainfall.
Agricultural Risk Warnings
Experts warn that below-normal October rainfall could reduce soil moisture and irrigation availability as farmers begin sowing winter crops.
Impact on agriculture
IMD Outlook
The India Meteorological Department forecasts normal post-monsoon conditions in peninsular India, which could provide some support in those regions.
Agricultural Risk Warnings
Agricultural experts say continued dryness could reduce rabi sowing and yields, particularly in rain-fed and canal-dependent areas, while weakening farm incomes and rural demand.
Food-price risks
IMD Outlook
The India Meteorological Department’s forecast identifies regional rainfall variation rather than a uniformly dry October-December period.
Agricultural Risk Warnings
Experts warn that the overall rainfall deficit, combined with potentially weak October rainfall, could increase pressure on food prices, especially vegetables and edible oils.
- Seasonal rainfall
- 759.4 mm, or 87% of the long-period average, from June through September 2026.
- Historical ranking
- Fourth-lowest monsoon rainfall since 2001 and 13th-lowest since 1901.
- Monsoon onset
- The monsoon reached Kerala on 4 June, three days later than the normal 1 June onset.
- Kharif sowing
- 110.39 million hectares had been sown by 18 September, about 1.5 million hectares below last year.
- Rice acreage
- Rice planting declined 3.7% year-on-year to 42.9 million hectares.
- Post-monsoon outlook
- Peninsular India is expected to receive normal October-December rainfall, defined as 88%-112% of its long-period average.
- October outlook
- Rainfall across India as a whole is forecast to be below normal, at less than 85% of the long-period average.