Archive · 20 Aug 2025
Fed's July Minutes Could Signal Rate Cut Ahead of September Meeting
The Federal Reserve (the Fed) had a meeting in July where they decided not to change interest rates.
The notes from that meeting will be released on August 20th, and they could show if the Fed might cut rates in September.
Two important people at the Fed, Bowman and Waller, wanted to cut rates in July.
Inflation is still a concern, but the job market is slowing.
Investors are now predicting there's a good chance the Fed might lower rates at their next meeting in September.
Minutes from the July FOMC meeting, where rates were held steady, will be released August 20.
Two FOMC members, Bowman and Waller, dissented in July, advocating for a rate cut.
Investors are watching for clues about potential rate cuts at the September 16-17 meeting.
Inflation remains elevated, with the July PPI surging and core CPI up to 3.1%.
Market anticipates an 83-85% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September.
- Who
- FOMC members, including Bowman, Waller, and Chair Jerome Powell.
- What
- FOMC meeting minutes from July will be released, potentially influencing decisions on future interest rate changes.
- When
- Minutes released August 20; next FOMC meeting September 16-17.
- Where
- Federal Reserve (FOMC).
- Why
- To provide insights into the Federal Reserve's considerations regarding interest rate policy, inflation, and the labor market.
Pro-Rate Cut
Hold Rate
Rate Cut Debate
Pro-Rate Cut
Bowman and Waller favored immediate rate cuts in July.
Hold Rate
The majority of the FOMC voted to hold rates steady.
- Meeting Date
- July
- Minutes Release
- August 20, 2 p.m. ET
- Next FOMC Meeting
- September 16-17
- Dissenters
- Bowman & Waller (July)
- September Rate Cut Probability
- 83-85%
- Core CPI (July)
- 3.1%
- July PPI Increase
- 0.9%
