Archive · 25 Sep 2026
Treasury Yields Surge as Oil and Data Lift Rate Bets
U.S. government bond yields rose very quickly over two trading days.
A yield is the return investors expect from lending money by buying a bond.
The 10-year yield reached about 5.19%, while the 30-year yield reached levels not seen in 22 years.
Strong manufacturing data suggested that the economy still had momentum.
Higher oil prices also raised concerns that inflation could increase.
These developments made investors think the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates again.
The estimated chance of an October rate increase rose to nearly 71% from about 55% a week earlier.
Oil later fell below $106 after reports of discussions between the United States and Iran, but bond yields remained near their highs.
The article says investors are demanding more return to hold government bonds because they expect rates and inflation risks to remain elevated.
U.S. Treasury yields across maturities rose sharply, with the 10-year yield gaining more than 30 basis points in two sessions.
The 10-year yield traded around 5.19%, while the 30-year yield reached 5.47%, its highest level in 22 years, before holding at 5.48%.
September’s flash S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose to 57.0 from 53.9, exceeding the 53.6 market estimate.
Oil prices climbed as high as $108 per barrel, adding to inflation concerns and contributing to the bond sell-off.
Markets priced a nearly 71% chance of an October Federal Reserve rate increase, up from about 55% a week earlier.
- Who
- U.S. Treasury bond investors, the Federal Reserve, and economic-market participants.
- What
- Treasury yields surged across maturities, while markets sharply increased expectations of another Federal Reserve rate increase.
- When
- The sharp move occurred over two trading sessions, with the latest figures reported on Friday and September 25, 2026, for the 30-year yield.
- Where
- U.S. Treasury and financial markets; oil-market developments also involved the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports.
- Why
- Strong manufacturing data, sharply higher oil prices, inflation concerns, and expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates prompted investors to reprice bonds.
- 10-year yield
- Around 5.19% on Friday; up more than 30 basis points in two trading sessions.
- 30-year yield
- Reached 5.47%, a 22-year high, and was reported at 5.48% on September 25, 2026.
- 2-year yield
- Rose to 4.941%.
- Manufacturing PMI
- S&P Global’s U.S. flash PMI increased to 57.0 in September 2026 from 53.9 in August, above the 53.6 estimate.
- Oil price
- Rose as high as $108 per barrel before Brent crude fell below $106.
- October rate-hike odds
- Fed funds futures implied a nearly 71% chance of an October increase, versus roughly 55% a week earlier.
- Main market concern
- Investors cited inflation, fiscal deterioration, and the prospect of interest rates staying higher for longer.