Archive · 7 Oct 2026
Polls and Prediction Markets Suggest Tight Israeli Election Ahead
Israel is preparing for an election on October 27.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hopes to remain in office.
Prediction markets currently give Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief who leads a new party, a better chance of becoming prime minister.
Opinion polls tell a less decisive story: Eisenkot’s party and Netanyahu’s party are close in projected seats.
Other parties are also expected to win seats.
The Knesset has 120 seats, and a group needs at least 61 to form a government.
Current projections do not show any side reliably reaching that number.
So, after the election, parties may need to negotiate and join together.
Those talks could help decide who leads the next government.
Israel’s election is scheduled for October 27, after the 25th Knesset completed its full term and was dissolved on July 17.
Prediction markets favor former military chief Gadi Eisenkot over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with Eisenkot around 48–49% and Netanyahu at 34–36%.
Opinion polls show Eisenkot’s Yashar and Netanyahu’s Likud tied as the largest parties, each averaging about 21–23 seats.
Recent projections give Netanyahu’s outgoing coalition parties about 51–54 of the Knesset’s 120 seats; Arab parties average around 13.
No bloc has consistently reached the 61 seats needed to form a government, making coalition negotiations likely to determine who becomes prime minister.
- Who
- Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, and other Israeli political parties.
- What
- Prediction markets favor Eisenkot, while opinion polls show his party and Netanyahu’s Likud close in projected seats; no bloc consistently has a projected majority.
- When
- The election is scheduled for October 27; the 25th Knesset was dissolved on July 17.
- Where
- Israel.
- Why
- The election will determine the next government, and coalition negotiations may be needed because no bloc consistently reaches the 61 seats required for a majority.
- Election date
- October 27
- Parliament
- The 25th Knesset completed its scheduled term and was dissolved on July 17.
- Prediction markets
- Polymarket gives Eisenkot about 48% and Netanyahu 35–36%; Kalshi gives Eisenkot 49% and Netanyahu 34%.
- Longer-term Kalshi market
- Eisenkot is favored at around 60% in a market on who will succeed Netanyahu as prime minister.
- Largest parties in polls
- Yashar and Likud each average about 21–23 seats.
- Outgoing coalition projection
- Its parties average 51–54 seats across recent aggregates.
- Majority threshold
- 61 seats in the 120-seat Knesset.