Archive · 3 Oct 2025
Morgan Stanley: Shutdown Could Last 10-29 Days
Financial analysts at Morgan Stanley are using special tools called "options" to guess how long the government shutdown will last.
These options help them bet on future events.
Based on the prices of these options, they think the shutdown will probably last between 10 and 29 days.
This is because the shutdown is delaying important reports about jobs and prices.
The longer the shutdown goes on, the more the market might change.
Morgan Stanley analyzed Treasury options pricing to estimate shutdown duration.
Options pricing reflects risk premiums for economic data releases.
The analysis considers the delay of key economic indicators due to shutdown.
Morgan Stanley predicts a 10- to 29-day shutdown with over 60% probability.
The prediction is based on analyzing prices of 1-day straddles.
- Who
- Morgan Stanley strategists
- What
- Predicting the duration of the US government shutdown
- When
- Based on current options pricing
- Where
- US
- Why
- To analyze potential impact of the shutdown on the markets
Financial markets
Economic uncertainty
Market Impact
Financial markets
Options pricing suggests uncertainty
Economic uncertainty
Shutdown duration has financial implications
- Source
- Morgan Stanley
- Analysis
- Treasury options pricing
- Shutdown Duration Prediction
- 10 to 29 days
- Methodology
- Analyzing Treasury options prices
- Data Points Affected
- Employment report, CPI data
