Archive · 9 Oct 2026
What History Says About Stocks After 2026 Midterms
The article looks at how the U.S. stock market has behaved around midterm elections.
In many past elections, stocks rose in the months after voting.
That happened under different results for which party controlled Congress.
But history cannot promise what will happen next.
The article says stocks have already risen in 2026, helped by company earnings, business investment and spending on artificial intelligence.
It also says inflation, interest rates, energy prices and events around the world could affect markets.
If election results are expected, investors may not react much.
Unexpected results could cause a bigger short-term move.
The article says investors should not make decisions based only on election headlines.
Historical data cited in the article show the S&P 500 often gains after midterm elections: it averaged 15.5% in the six months after 14 midterms since 1970.
Fidelity says the index recorded gains in 95% of the 12-month periods after midterms since 1938; Ameriprise reports an average gain above 15.4% in the year after midterms since 1950.
Past returns after midterms have generally been positive across different outcomes for congressional control, including cases where the governing party lost at least one chamber.
The article says the S&P 500 is up 14% year to date in 2026 and 30% since Donald Trump took office in 2025, while citing earnings, business investment and AI spending as supports.
Analysts caution that inflation, interest rates, energy prices, geopolitics and AI investment may influence markets more than election results, and past performance does not guarantee future returns.
- Who
- Investors and analysts assessing the U.S. stock market around the 2026 midterm elections.
- What
- The article reviews historical stock returns around midterms and factors that could affect markets after the 2026 election.
- When
- Ahead of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections.
- Where
- The United States.
- Why
- Investors are weighing whether the election could disrupt market momentum and how much results may matter compared with economic and market fundamentals.
Reasons for optimism
Reasons for caution
Historical post-election performance
Reasons for optimism
Historical data cited by Edward Jones, Fidelity and Ameriprise show that stocks have often risen after midterm elections.
Reasons for caution
The article cautions that historical performance does not guarantee future results, and unusual financial stress can be an exception.
Current market momentum
Reasons for optimism
Strong earnings, business investment and AI-related capital spending have supported the market, according to Edward Jones.
Reasons for caution
Edward Jones says a strong market may leave less room for unusually large post-election gains; Fidelity says investors are reassessing AI spending and valuations.
Importance of election results
Reasons for optimism
Unexpected results could prompt a sharper short-term market move, while gridlock may reduce policy uncertainty, according to Edward Jones.
Reasons for caution
Edward Jones says fundamentals such as growth, earnings, inflation and interest rates have generally mattered more to long-term returns than election outcomes.
- Historical six-month return
- The S&P 500 averaged 15.5% in the six months after 14 midterm elections since 1970, according to Edward Jones.
- Historical 12-month results
- Fidelity says the S&P 500 posted gains in 95% of the 12-month periods after midterms since 1938.
- One-year average
- Ameriprise reports the S&P 500 gained an average of more than 15.4% in the year after midterms, going back to 1950.
- 2026 market performance
- The article says the S&P 500 was up 14% year to date and 30% since Donald Trump took office in 2025.
- March decline
- The article puts the S&P 500's March peak-to-trough decline at about 9%, compared with a 19% average midterm-year drawdown.
- Cited market supports
- Edward Jones points to strong earnings, resilient business investment and heavy AI-related capital spending.
- Potential market drivers
- The article identifies inflation, interest rates, energy prices, geopolitics, earnings and the durability of AI-related investment as important factors.