3 days ago
Nifty’s Five-Week Slide May Face a Technical Bounce
The Nifty has fallen for five weeks in a row.
This shows that sellers have been stronger than buyers.
However, some technical measures say the fall may have gone too far in the short term.
That could lead to a temporary bounce or recovery.
The index must first move above the 23,572–23,623 area to show meaningful improvement.
If it falls below 23,231, the decline could become stronger.
The larger trend is still considered weak.
Separately, VA Tech Wabag reached a record high after breaking out of a chart pattern.
Analysts identified ₹2,466 as a possible next target, with ₹2,160 as the suggested stop-loss level.
The Nifty fell 499.60 points, or 2.09%, last week, extending its decline to five consecutive weeks.
The index closed below its lower Bollinger Band for three sessions, while daily RSI entered oversold territory.
Friday’s low of 23,231 is the key near-term support, while 23,572–23,623 is the immediate resistance zone.
A sustained move above the resistance zone could improve the short-term outlook, but a break below 23,231 may extend the decline.
VA Tech Wabag broke out of a 45-week cup pattern and is projected to test ₹2,466, with a stop loss at ₹2,160.
- Who
- The Nifty 50 and VA Tech Wabag Limited are the main market subjects.
- What
- The Nifty extended a five-week decline while showing possible signs of a short-term technical bounce; VA Tech Wabag posted a bullish chart breakout.
- Where
- The analysis concerns the Indian equity market and the Nifty index.
- When
- The Nifty’s latest decline ended on Friday, with the outlook focused on the coming week.
- Why
- The Nifty remains in a confirmed downtrend, but oversold indicators and its test of a declining channel’s lower boundary may support a temporary recovery.
Technical Bounce Case
Continued Bearish Case
Near-term direction
Technical Bounce Case
Three sessions below the lower Bollinger Band, an oversold daily RSI, and a test of the declining channel’s lower boundary could encourage a recovery or short covering.
Continued Bearish Case
The Nifty remains in a confirmed downtrend after breaking below Fibonacci support levels and an earlier swing low.
Important price levels
Technical Bounce Case
A sustained move above 23,572–23,623 could signal short-term improvement, with the next resistance near 23,940.
Continued Bearish Case
A decisive break below 23,231 could resume the decline and strengthen the bearish setup.
Key facts
- Weekly Nifty change
- Down 499.60 points, or 2.09%
- Losing streak
- Five consecutive weeks
- Key Nifty support
- 23,231
- Immediate resistance
- 23,572–23,623
- Next Nifty resistance
- Near 23,940
- VA Tech Wabag breakout
- Breakout from a 45-week cup pattern at a fresh lifetime high
- VA Tech Wabag levels
- Potential target ₹2,466; stop loss ₹2,160
Sources
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