Archive · 20 Jul 2026
SBI Research Warns of Deposit-Credit Growth Wedge
SBI's economic research team says that the gap between the growth of bank deposits and the growth of loans (credit) might keep getting bigger.
This is because of risks from things happening around the world (geopolitical risks) and sudden problems in supply.
Even though deposits might grow because of new foreign currency deposits, the team warns that these risks could still cause problems.
They also found that when oil prices go up, it affects loans more, and when food prices go up, it affects deposits over time.
Indian banks are in a good position with strong finances, but they need to be careful with these risks.
The wedge between deposit growth and credit growth may continue due to geopolitical risks and external supply shocks.
Deposit growth may pick up via fresh FCNR(B) deposits, shifting dynamics.
Supply-side shocks are transmitted asymmetrically, affecting bank credit growth more than deposit growth.
Liquidity management requires different strategies when supply shocks are accounted for.
Indian banks are well-capitalized with strong CRAR and low NPA, providing a cushion for credit expansion.
- Who
- SBI’s economic research department (ERD)
- What
- Wedge between deposit growth and credit growth may continue due to geopolitical risks
- When
- Published on July 20, 2026
- Where
- India
- Why
- Geopolitical risks and external supply shocks persist, affecting banking aggregates asymmetrically
Optimistic View
Cautious View
Impact of Geopolitical Risks
Optimistic View
Geopolitical risks may not significantly impact deposit growth due to fresh FCNR(B) deposits.
Cautious View
Geopolitical risks and external supply shocks could persist, continuing the wedge between deposit and credit growth.
Banking System Stability
Optimistic View
Indian banks are well-capitalized with strong CRAR and low NPA, providing a cushion for credit expansion.
Cautious View
Supply shocks create liquidity gaps, indicating potential risks to the banking system.
- Credit Growth
- 18.6% for the fortnight ended 30 June 2026
- Deposit Growth
- 13.3% for the fortnight ended 30 June 2026
- Credit-Deposit Gap
- 5.3% in June 2026
- Average Oil Price (2004-05)
- $41.3 per barrel
- Credit Growth (2004-05)
- 21.7%
- Deposit Growth (2004-05)
- 14.1%
- CRAR
- Strong and low NPA