Archive · 10 Aug 2025
India's Fertility Rate Drops, Resembling East Asia
India's birth rate is dropping, meaning fewer babies are being born.
This is happening because people are living longer.
Experts say that it is unlikely the birth rate will increase to the replacement level.
This is similar to other countries like China and South Korea, where the population is expected to decline.
The change means that the population will likely peak earlier than expected.
India's total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen below the replacement level of 2.1.
Peak births occurred in 2001, with estimated births around 23 million in 2024.
Experts predict India's population will peak at 1.67 billion in 2055.
Life expectancy in India rose to 72.5 years in 2023 from 41 in 1950.
West Bengal's TFR is 1.6, resembling East Asia's low rates.
- Who
- Experts Sanjeev Sanyal and Sayandeb Banerjee.
- What
- India's total fertility rate has fallen below replacement levels.
- When
- The fertility decline is ongoing, with a projected peak population in 2055.
- Where
- India
- Why
- Declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancy.
Potential Negative Impacts
NA
Economic
Potential Negative Impacts
Low fertility rates may affect economic growth.
NA
NA
- TFR Replacement Level
- 2.25 (required in India)
- Global TFR
- 2.2
- India's Estimated Births (2024)
- 23 million
- India's Population Peak Projection
- 1.67 billion (2055)
- India's Life Expectancy (1950)
- 41 years
- India's Life Expectancy (2023)
- 72.5 years
- West Bengal TFR
- 1.6