Archive · 25 Sep 2026
CEA Flags US Friction, Energy Shocks, and AI Gap
India’s chief economic advisor said the country faces several near-term economic risks.
One risk is disagreement with the United States.
Another is that energy supplies and prices could become unstable.
India could also lose opportunities if it does not build a strong artificial intelligence industry.
The United States may impose penalties on countries that buy Russian oil.
India cannot easily choose one side in global conflicts, so it may need to work with several sides.
This strategy can cost more money.
Higher interest rates abroad may also make investors less likely to put money into India.
The advisor said India needs a new plan for handling a world with more supply problems and geopolitical tension.
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran identified US tensions, energy disruptions, and India’s missing AI play as near-term risks.
He warned that US tariffs, trade curbs, and possible penalties on Russian oil buyers could pressure India.
Nageswaran said India cannot choose between global blocs and must hedge, though hedging will increase costs.
Rising advanced-economy bond yields could reduce capital inflows, while India recently attracted $127 billion through FCNR-B deposits.
He said India needs a new public-private economic playbook because global supply shocks and geopolitical risks have intensified.
- Who
- Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran, with related comments from Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal.
- What
- India was warned about three near-term risks: unsettled US relations, energy-market disruptions, and the absence of a significant AI play.
- When
- The warning was made on Friday; the article also refers to measures and market changes in recent weeks and months.
- Where
- At an event of the Public Affairs Forum of India in New Delhi.
- Why
- US trade and Russia-related measures, higher advanced-economy interest rates, supply shocks, and geopolitical tensions could affect India’s capital flows, costs, and economic strategy.
- Three risks
- US friction, energy-market disruptions, and the absence of an AI play.
- Potential US tariff authority
- A US law empowers the president to impose tariffs of up to 100% on key countries buying Russian oil, including India and China.
- India-US trade talks
- Piyush Goyal said a trade pact is effectively complete but awaits a competitive edge for India from the United States.
- US export market
- The United States was identified in the article as India’s biggest export market in 2026-27, with $87 billion in goods exports.
- FCNR-B deposits
- India attracted a record $127 billion through FCNR-B deposits under a special foreign-exchange swap facility between June 8 and August 31.
- Total inflows
- Three central-bank measures led to total inflows of $136 billion over that period.
- US Treasury yield
- The US 10-year Treasury yield was reported at 5.19%, up 102 basis points during the year and 25 basis points over the previous three days.