Archive · 24 Dec 2025
Patent cliff to reduce protected drug sales
A new report says that by 2030, only 4% of drug sales will be protected by patents, down from 12% in 2022.
This is because many patents for important drugs will expire, especially in areas like cancer treatment.
Drugs like Keytruda and Darzalex will face competition from cheaper versions, which could lower their sales.
Companies are trying to prepare by developing new drugs and improving existing ones to make up for the lost revenue.
The report suggests that companies with strong plans for the future will handle this change better.
Only 4% of global drug sales will be patent-protected by 2030, down from 12% in 2022.
Patent expirations will affect both biologics and small-molecule drugs with multiple indications.
Oncology and high-value biologics are among the most exposed therapy areas.
Key drugs like Keytruda (Merck) and Darzalex/Faspro (Johnson & Johnson) will lose US patent protection by 2029.
More than half of the world's top 15 pharmaceutical companies will face material challenges due to this patent cliff.
- Who
- Global pharmaceutical companies, particularly those with top-selling drugs
- What
- A significant reduction in patent-protected drug sales due to patent expirations
- When
- Between 2022 and 2030, with notable impacts by 2029
- Where
- Globally, with a focus on the US market for patent expirations
- Why
- Due to a clustering of patent expirations for both biologics and small-molecule drugs, leading to increased competition from biosimilars and generics
- Current protected drug sales (2022)
- 12%
- Projected protected drug sales (2024)
- 6%
- Projected protected drug sales (2030)
- 4%
- Therapy areas most affected
- Oncology and high-value biologics
- Key drugs losing US patent protection by 2029
- Keytruda (Merck), Darzalex/Faspro (Johnson & Johnson)
- Percentage of top 15 pharma companies affected
- More than 50%