Archive · 29 Oct 2025
CreditAccess Grameen Analysts Divided on Credit Cost Guidance
CreditAccess Grameen, a company that lends money, had a good performance in the last three months, even though it's usually a slower time of year.
They made more money from other sources and spent less on running their business.
However, the company told investors that they expect to spend more money on potential loan losses in the next two years.
This increase in expected future costs has made some financial analysts a bit worried, even though the company's core business of lending and getting money back is doing well.
Despite this concern about future costs, some analysts still recommend buying the stock because they believe the company is managing its business efficiently and will recover quickly.
They have set different price targets for the stock based on their outlook.
CreditAccess Grameen reported strong results for the September quarter, driven by higher other income and lower operating expenses.
Analysts are disappointed with the company's increased credit cost guidance for FY26 and FY27.
The company guided for 70-100 basis points higher credit costs in FY26 and 4-4.5% in FY27.
Business momentum showed an uptick with AUM and disbursals growth of 3.1% and 33% YoY, respectively.
Despite concerns over credit costs, analysts maintain a neutral-to-positive bias, with differing target prices set for the stock.
- Who
- CreditAccess Grameen (CREDAG)
- What
- Reported strong September quarter results but disappointed analysts with increased credit cost guidance for FY26 and FY27.
- When
- September quarter (Q2) of the fiscal year.
- Where
- India (implied)
- Why
- Increased credit cost guidance, including provisions from ECL revision, overshadowed strong operational performance and business momentum.
Analyst Concerns
Company Performance & Outlook
Credit Cost Guidance
Analyst Concerns
Analysts are disappointed with the increase in credit cost guidance for FY26 (70-100 bps higher) and FY27 (4-4.5%, including 70-80 bps higher provisions from ECL revision), revising earnings estimates downwards.
Company Performance & Outlook
The company guided for higher credit costs, citing factors like ECL revision, but underlying business trends and expected recovery in the second half of the fiscal year remain on track.
Stock Recommendation and Target Price
Analyst Concerns
HDFC Institutional Equities maintains an 'ADD' rating with a revised target price of ₹1,450, expecting the premium multiple to sustain due to superior operating performance. MOFSL suggests a 'Buy' with a target price of ₹1,690.
Company Performance & Outlook
Despite the credit cost guidance, analysts acknowledge the strong September quarter earnings, higher other income, lower operating expenses, and positive business momentum (AUM and disbursals growth).
Asset Quality and Future Growth
Analyst Concerns
The increase in credit cost guidance is seen as a near-term negative by analysts.
Company Performance & Outlook
The company is seeing signs of normalization in asset quality with a reducing PAR-0 portfolio and steady monthly PAR 15+ accretion. MOFSL believes structural levers like branch expansion and collection efficiency strengthen its position for loan growth and profitability improvement from 2HFY26 onwards.
- September Quarter Performance
- Strong, with higher other income and lower operating expenses.
- AUM Growth (YoY)
- 3.1%
- Disbursals Growth (YoY)
- 33%
- PAR-0 Portfolio
- 4.7% (down from 5.9% in Q1)
- Credit Cost Guidance FY26
- 70-100 bps higher than previously guided.
- Credit Cost Guidance FY27
- 4-4.5%, including 70-80 bps higher provisions from ECL revision.
- HDFC Institutional Equities Target Price
- ₹1,450
- MOFSL Target Price
- ₹1,690