Archive · 11 Oct 2026
India Rice Exports Forecast to Fall 4% in 2027
India may sell less rice to other countries in 2027.
The USDA predicts exports will drop by 4% to 24 million tonnes.
It says higher prices and fewer supplies available for export are part of the reason.
Poor monsoon rains linked to a strong El Niño are expected to reduce rice production.
The forecast for production is 147 million tonnes, down 4.5%.
Rice prices in shops have risen compared with last year.
The government says it has more rice in storage than the required buffer and plans to release some to help curb prices.
India’s lower supplies could also affect the amount of rice available in world markets.
The USDA projects India’s rice exports will fall 4% to 24 million tonnes in 2027, mainly because of lower shipments of broken and white rice.
The report links the outlook to higher prices and reduced exportable supplies; India currently accounts for over 40% of global rice trade.
A strong El Niño and poor monsoon are expected to cut 2026–27 rice production by 4.5% to 147 million tonnes, according to the USDA and an industry executive.
Paddy area in the current kharif season fell 3.7% to 42.92 million hectares, with declines reported in several southern states.
Retail rice prices reached Rs 46.92 per kg, up 10% year on year; the government says it holds over 38 million tonnes and may sell stocks to restrain prices.
- Who
- India’s rice exporters; the USDA issued the export forecast.
- What
- India’s rice exports are projected to decline 4% to 24 million tonnes in 2027.
- When
- The forecast concerns 2027; the production outlook is for the 2026–27 crop year.
- Where
- India and the global rice market.
- Why
- The USDA cites lower exportable supplies and rising prices; poor monsoon conditions are expected to reduce production.
Export and price pressures
Government stock response
Rice availability and prices
Export and price pressures
The USDA and an industry executive expect reduced production and exportable supplies to push prices higher and slow shipments.
Government stock response
A government official said stocks exceed the buffer requirement and can be released through the open market sale scheme to curb price increases.
- Projected 2027 exports
- 24 million tonnes, down 4%
- Projected 2026–27 production
- 147 million tonnes, down 4.5%
- India's global trade share
- Over 40%
- Paddy area, current kharif season
- 42.92 million hectares, down 3.7%
- Retail rice price
- Rs 46.92 per kg, up 10% year on year
- Government rice stocks
- Over 38 million tonnes, against a 10.25-million-tonne buffer requirement for October 1
- Rice export destinations
- More than 140 countries