Archive · 17 Jan 2026
El Nino Likely to Emerge by July
The APEC Climate Centre says that El Nino, a weather pattern that can cause droughts, might start around the end of July this year.
El Nino can change wind patterns and reduce rainfall in places like India, especially during the monsoon season from June to September.
In the past, El Nino has caused late or weak monsoons and long dry periods.
Before El Nino starts, India might get more rain than usual.
Last year, El Nino lasted a long time and made 2024 the hottest year on record.
It also hurt food crops like rice and pulses, leading to higher food prices.
The APCC also predicts that most of the world will be warmer than usual, except for some areas.
They expect more rain in places like the Arctic, Central America, and Central Africa, but less rain in the central Pacific.
They also predict warmer temperatures in many regions, including the Arctic, parts of Europe, and the Pacific.
El Nino likely to emerge towards the end of July 2026, according to the APEC Climate Centre.
El Nino can disrupt monsoon patterns in India, leading to potential drought and reduced rainfall.
Before El Nino emerges, India may experience above-normal rainfall.
The 2023 El Nino lasted 11 months, affecting the 2024 monsoon and making 2024 the warmest year on record.
Global temperature predictions indicate above-normal temperatures for most regions, with specific precipitation trends identified for various areas.
- Who
- APEC Climate Centre (APCC)
- What
- Prediction of El Nino emergence and its impacts
- When
- Towards end of July 2026
- Where
- Global, with specific impacts on Asia, particularly India
- Why
- El Nino disrupts monsoon patterns, leading to potential drought and food inflation
- Predicted Emergence
- Towards end of July 2026
- Impact on India
- Disrupted monsoon, potential drought
- 2023 El Nino Duration
- 11 months, affected 2024 monsoon
- Global Temperature Impact
- Above-normal temperatures expected globally
- Precipitation Trends
- Above-normal in Arctic, Central America, Central Africa, Southwest Pacific
- Below-Normal Precipitation
- Central Pacific, Extra-tropical North Pacific (Jan-Mar 2026)
- Above-Normal Precipitation
- Subtropical North Pacific, Sahel region (Apr-Jun 2026)