10 hrs ago
Emkay Sees Nifty 50 Reaching 27,000 by September 2027
Emkay, a financial research firm, thinks India's main stock index could climb to 27,000 by September 2027.
It believes companies can keep earning money and that share prices have become more reasonable after falling.
Emkay also says India's domestic economy and demand provide support.
But the market has recently had a long losing streak, and its Friday rebound was modest.
High oil prices and global financial pressures could make the recovery harder.
Emkay says earnings growth may also slow in the second half of FY27.
If oil stays above $100 per barrel and bond-yield spreads remain narrow, the Nifty could instead fall to 21,000.
The forecast depends on companies meeting earnings expectations and broader conditions improving.
Emkay Global Financial Services forecasts the Nifty 50 could rise about 20% to 27,000 by September 2027.
The brokerage cites resilient earnings, more attractive valuations after the correction and supportive domestic fundamentals.
Emkay projects FY27 and FY28 Nifty earnings-per-share growth of 17.9% and 13.6%, respectively.
The Nifty fell for eight straight weeks, losing 8.7%, before modestly rebounding on Friday, 9 October.
Emkay warns that crude above $100 a barrel and narrow bond-yield spreads could push the Nifty down to 21,000.
- Who
- Emkay Global Financial Services, which issued the outlook for the Nifty 50.
- What
- It set a September 2027 Nifty 50 target of 27,000, implying about 20% upside, while warning of risks including a possible fall to 21,000.
- Where
- India's equity market, including the Nifty 50 benchmark.
- When
- The target is for September 2027; the reported market rebound occurred Friday, 9 October.
- Why
- Emkay points to resilient corporate earnings, more attractive valuations and supportive domestic fundamentals, but flags high crude prices and global financial pressures.
Reasons for optimism
Risks to the outlook
Earnings and valuations
Reasons for optimism
Emkay says earnings remain resilient and the correction has made valuations more attractive, supporting a recovery.
Risks to the outlook
The brokerage says earnings growth is not broad-based and could face tougher comparisons, margin pressure and other challenges in the second half of FY27.
Economic and market conditions
Reasons for optimism
Emkay points to domestic demand, economic growth, stronger corporate and financial-sector balance sheets, and well-managed government finances as support.
Risks to the outlook
Elevated crude prices and global bond yields could weigh on the current account deficit, the rupee and foreign portfolio investor flows.
Nifty outlook
Reasons for optimism
Emkay's base target is 27,000 by September 2027, based on 18.8 times one-year forward earnings.
Risks to the outlook
If crude remains above $100 per barrel and government bond-yield spreads stay narrow, Emkay's downside scenario puts the Nifty at 21,000.
Key facts
- Emkay Nifty 50 target
- 27,000 by September 2027
- Implied upside
- About 20%
- Valuation underpinning target
- 18.8 times one-year forward earnings
- Recent losing streak
- Eight consecutive weeks; the Nifty fell 8.7% over that period
- Friday Nifty close
- 22,520.45, up 1.3%
- Projected Nifty EPS growth
- 17.9% in FY27 and 13.6% in FY28
- Downside scenario
- Nifty could fall to 21,000 if crude remains above $100 per barrel and bond-yield spreads stay narrow
Sources
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