Archive · 16 Aug 2026
Lula Holds Slim Poll Lead Over Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil
In Brazil, grown-ups are getting ready to vote for a new president in October.
There is a big vote called an election.
A company called Quaest asked 2,004 people who they would vote for.
The current president, Lula, is leading his main rival, Flavio Bolsonaro.
Flavio Bolsonaro is a senator and the oldest son of a former president.
In a pretend second round of voting, Lula got 43% and Flavio got 40%.
The difference is so small that it is almost a tie.
If no one gets more than half of the votes, the top two candidates face each other in a second round.
Flavio Bolsonaro came closer to Lula compared to an earlier poll.
The race is very close, and many people are watching to see what happens.
A Quaest poll shows Lula leading Flavio Bolsonaro 43% to 40% in a simulated second-round runoff.
The gap narrowed from Lula's 44%-39% lead in an August 5 poll, leaving the race a virtual tie given the 2-point margin of error.
In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 38% versus 31% for Bolsonaro, followed by Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado at 4% each and Romeu Zema at 2%.
Flavio Bolsonaro, a senator and eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has emerged as the leading right-wing challenger.
The poll surveyed 2,004 people between August 10 and 13 and was commissioned by Brazilian media outlet Globo.
Under Brazil's electoral rules, a runoff is required unless a candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the first round.
- Who
- Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the leading right-wing challenger and eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.
- What
- Lula holds a narrow lead over Flavio Bolsonaro in a Quaest poll for October's presidential election, a margin within the poll's error range.
- When
- The poll surveyed 2,004 people between August 10 and 13 and was released on Friday; the election is scheduled for October.
- Where
- Brazil.
- Why
- The two are competing in Brazil's presidential election, where a runoff between the top two candidates is needed unless someone exceeds 50% of valid votes in the first round.
- Pollster
- Quaest
- Runoff support
- Lula 43%, Flavio Bolsonaro 40%
- First-round support
- Lula 38%, Bolsonaro 31%, Santos and Caiado 4% each, Zema 2%
- Margin of error
- 2 percentage points
- Poll dates
- August 10-13
- Sample size
- 2,004 people
- Commissioned by
- Globo
- Election timing
- October