Archive · 29 Sep 2026
Why the Thucydides Trap Misreads the US-China Rivalry
The Thucydides Trap is an idea that a rising country and an established powerful country may eventually go to war.
The article says this idea does not fit the United States and China very well.
It argues that America is still strong in technology, finance, the military and alliances.
It also says China may be reaching the highest point of its power instead of continuing to rise endlessly.
China has a very large manufacturing industry, but it may struggle if people at home do not buy enough of its products.
The article says China also cannot yet use military force around the world as widely as the United States can.
The author believes China may try to gain influence without fighting directly.
Taiwan is described as the most dangerous place where the two countries could make a serious mistake.
The article concludes that neither country needs to prove its greatness through a war.
The article argues that the Thucydides Trap is a flawed analogy for US-China relations.
It says the United States remains technologically, militarily, economically and institutionally powerful rather than clearly declining.
The author contends that China may be a peaking power facing demographic, economic and geopolitical constraints.
China’s industrial overcapacity, dependence on exports and limited global military reach are presented as potential weaknesses.
The article identifies Taiwan as the most dangerous flashpoint and warns against strategic miscalculation by Washington or Beijing.
- Who
- The United States and China, including leaders Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, are the central actors.
- What
- The article challenges the use of the Thucydides Trap to explain the US-China rivalry.
- When
- The discussion refers to two statements by Xi Jinping this year, a 2015 visit, and global reserve data from the first quarter of 2026.
- Where
- The rivalry is global, with Taiwan identified as the most dangerous potential flashpoint.
- Why
- The author argues that the historical analogy reverses the original power roles and overlooks America’s continuing strengths and China’s mounting constraints.
Thucydides Trap Interpretation
Thucydides Trap Critique
Power transition
Thucydides Trap Interpretation
China’s rise and America’s supposed decline could create fear and rivalry similar to the conditions preceding the Peloponnesian War.
Thucydides Trap Critique
The author says America is not clearly declining and China may already be a peaking power facing demographic, economic and geopolitical limits.
Historical comparison
Thucydides Trap Interpretation
China can be viewed as the rising Athens and the United States as the established Sparta in a modern power transition.
Thucydides Trap Critique
The article argues that the analogy reverses key characteristics: the US is the major sea power and open democratic society, while China is presented as more closely resembling authoritarian Sparta.
Risk of conflict
Thucydides Trap Interpretation
A changing balance of power may make war increasingly likely, particularly if China believes its opportunity is closing.
Thucydides Trap Critique
The author says both countries can avoid catastrophe if they reject fatalistic theories and prevent miscalculations, especially over Taiwan.
- Central argument
- The Thucydides Trap may be the wrong framework for understanding US-China relations.
- Historical analogy
- The concept comes from Thucydides’ account of the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta.
- United States
- The article says the US retains technological, military, economic, financial and alliance advantages.
- China’s economy
- China is described as having a trillion-dollar trade surplus, industrial overcapacity and heavy reliance on exports.
- Global reserves
- The dollar accounted for 57.13% of allocated global foreign-exchange reserves in the first quarter of 2026, according to the article.
- Military reach
- The article says China remains constrained in its ability to sustain global military power projection.
- Main flashpoint
- Taiwan is identified as the most dangerous potential source of conflict between Washington and Beijing.