Archive · 23 Jul 2025
Agencies Cut India's FY26 GDP Growth Forecasts Amid US Tariff Concerns
Two agencies, ADB and India Ratings, think India's economy won't grow as fast in 2026 as they previously thought.
They are predicting slower growth in the coming year.
This is because of worries about global trade, especially due to new taxes from the US, and a slower rate of investment.
The ADB lowered its forecast to 6.5%, and India Ratings to 6.3%, both lower than their earlier predictions.
They are also keeping an eye on whether the economy is slowing down because the investment isn't going to go as fast as they thought it would.
While it's still expected to grow, the growth may not be as strong as anticipated.
ADB and India Ratings cut India's GDP growth forecast for FY26.
ADB lowered its forecast to 6.5% from 6.7% due to trade uncertainty and US tariffs.
India Ratings expects FY26 GDP growth to slow amid global uncertainties.
India Ratings lowered its forecast to 6.3% from 6.6% in December 2024.
Uncertainties include US tariff hikes and a weaker investment climate.
- Who
- ADB and India Ratings
- What
- Two agencies cut India's GDP growth forecast for FY26.
- When
- FY26
- Where
- India
- Why
- Due to trade uncertainty, US tariffs, and a weaker-than-expected investment climate.
Impact of US Tariffs and Investment
Mitigating Factors
Economic Outlook
Impact of US Tariffs and Investment
Agencies have scaled down GDP growth forecasts in FY26 due to the impact of US tariffs and associated policy uncertainty. Heightened policy uncertainty may affect investment flows.
Mitigating Factors
Monetary easing and likely above-normal rainfall in 2025 may positively influence the economy.
- ADB FY26 GDP Forecast
- 6.5%
- ADB Previous FY26 GDP Forecast
- 6.7%
- India Ratings FY26 GDP Forecast
- 6.3%
- India Ratings Previous FY26 GDP Forecast (Dec 2024)
- 6.6%
- Primary Concerns
- US Tariffs, Weaker Investment Climate
- Economic Survey Forecast
- 6.3% - 6.8%