Archive · 6 Aug 2026
RBI holds repo rate, cuts inflation forecast, raises GDP outlook
The Reserve Bank of India is the country's central bank, and it helps keep prices stable while supporting the economy.
Its committee meets from time to time to decide interest rates.
In August, the committee decided to keep the main interest rate, called the repo rate, unchanged at 5.25%.
This decision was expected by most experts.
The bank also said prices are likely to rise a little less than it earlier thought.
At the same time, it increased its prediction for how fast the economy is growing.
The bank's chief spoke in a calm way, suggesting the bank will not rush to raise rates because of higher food and fuel prices.
Some economists who expected a rate increase in October changed their minds after the announcement.
The bank still says its main job is to keep overall inflation close to its target.
The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% with a neutral stance, matching market expectations.
The FY27 inflation forecast was revised down 10 basis points to 5.0%, with the current-quarter projection cut by 40 basis points.
The GDP growth forecast for the June quarter was raised by 40 basis points to 7.0%, and the full-year FY27 forecast to 6.7%.
The RBI sounded dovish, appearing ready to look through supply-side-driven inflation above 5% over the next 15 months.
Economists at Goldman Sachs, Kotak and I-Sec pushed back their expected rate-hike timing, and the market now prices in no hike in November.
- Who
- The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), led by the RBI Governor
- What
- Kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% with a neutral stance while lowering inflation forecasts and raising GDP growth forecasts
- When
- August, with the MPC minutes due on August 19
- Where
- India
- Why
- To support growth running near 7% while treating the expected rise in inflation as largely supply-side and temporary
RBI's dovish stance
Market's hawkish expectations
How to treat above-target inflation
RBI's dovish stance
The RBI is prepared to look through 5%-plus headline inflation because it is driven by supply-side food and fuel pressures and is not broad-based, allowing it to keep rates supportive of growth.
Market's hawkish expectations
Markets expected the governor to flag signs of generalised inflation and rising inflation expectations, and some economists had expected a rate hike as early as October.
Which inflation measure should guide policy
RBI's dovish stance
The RBI focuses on underlying core inflation, which it expects to average 4.3% and decline after peaking in Q3, while reiterating that headline inflation remains its official target.
Market's hawkish expectations
The market interpreted the statement's reference to 'normalisation of underlying inflation' as a signal about core inflation, while the RBI may instead mean month-on-month momentum across a broad basket of goods and services.
- Repo rate
- 5.25% (unchanged, neutral stance)
- FY27 inflation forecast
- 5.0% (revised down from 5.1%)
- FY27 GDP growth forecast
- 6.7% (revised up from 6.6%)
- Q1 FY27 GDP growth
- 7.0% (raised by 40 basis points)
- Q1 FY28 GDP growth
- 7.3% (projected)
- Core inflation outlook
- Average 4.3%
- Next MPC minutes
- Due August 19