Archive · 14 Dec 2025
US Treasury Secretary Predicts Large Tax Refunds in 2026
The US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, has said that many American families will get big tax refunds in early 2026.
This is because of a new law called the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).
The law changes how taxes are calculated for the year 2025.
Since most people didn't change how much tax was taken from their paychecks, they will get more money back when they file their taxes.
The refunds could be between $1,000 and $2,000 for each household.
After getting these refunds, people can adjust their paycheck withholding to get more money in their paychecks for the rest of 2026.
The IRS usually starts accepting tax returns in late January, and the earliest refunds are issued shortly after.
President Trump also mentioned that this could be the largest tax refund season ever.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicts 'very large refunds' for American households in early 2026.
Total refunds expected to range from $100 billion to $150 billion, averaging $1,000 to $2,000 per household.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), passed in July, includes retroactive provisions affecting 2025 taxes.
Most working Americans have not adjusted their paycheck withholding, leading to larger refunds.
Once refunds are received and withholding is updated, take-home pay is expected to increase throughout 2026.
- Who
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and President Donald Trump
- What
- Prediction of large tax refunds for 2026 due to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)
- When
- Early 2026 tax filing season
- Where
- United States
- Why
- Recent changes under the OBBBA affecting taxes on 2025 earnings and most working Americans not adjusting their paycheck withholding
- Total Refunds Expected
- $100 billion to $150 billion
- Average Refund per Household
- $1,000 to $2,000
- Bill Responsible
- One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)
- Effective Tax Year
- 2025
- Tax Filing Season
- Early 2026
- IRS Tax Return Acceptance
- Late January