Archive · 14 Jan 2026
Raghuram Rajan Warns of Central Bank Doom Loop
Raghuram Rajan, a famous economist, is worried about a big problem.
He thinks that some countries, like the US and Japan, have too much debt.
When interest rates go up, it becomes harder for these countries to pay back their debt.
This can create a 'doom loop' where higher interest rates make the debt worse, and the worse debt makes interest rates go even higher.
Central banks, which control interest rates, have been helping by buying government debt.
But Rajan says this might not be a good idea in the long run.
He explains that central banks have been buying a lot of government bonds, especially after the 2008 financial crisis and during the COVID-19 pandemic.
This is called 'quantitative easing' or QE.
The idea was to help the economy, but now it looks like central banks are helping the government pay its debts.
Rajan warns that this could lead to more problems, like higher inflation and economic instability.
He says central banks need to be careful and find better ways to manage this situation.
Raghuram Rajan warns of a potential 'doom loop' where higher interest rates lead to higher government deficits and vice versa.
Central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, have been buying government bonds to stimulate the economy, a practice known as quantitative easing (QE).
The Fed's holdings of Treasury securities have grown significantly, from $800 billion in 2008 to $4.2 trillion currently.
Rajan argues that these policies indirectly finance government deficits and could lead to economic instability and higher debt-service costs.
He suggests that central banks need to find better answers to manage government debt financing and avoid a doom loop.
- Who
- Raghuram Rajan, a professor of finance and former governor of the Reserve Bank of India
- What
- Warns about the potential for a 'doom loop' where higher interest rates lead to higher deficits and vice versa, facilitated by central bank policies
- When
- The article discusses recent and ongoing central bank policies, particularly since the 2007-08 financial crisis and during the COVID-19 pandemic
- Where
- The analysis focuses on countries like Japan and the US, where sovereign debt is at or above GDP levels
- Why
- To highlight the risks of central banks indirectly financing government deficits, which could lead to economic instability and higher debt-service costs
- Author
- Raghuram Rajan
- Current Position
- Professor of Finance, University of Chicago Booth School of Business
- Former Position
- Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)
- Key Concern
- Potential doom loop of unsustainable government deficits
- Countries Mentioned
- Japan, US, and other countries with high sovereign debt
- Policy Mentioned
- Quantitative Easing (QE) and Quantitative Tightening (QT)
- Fed's Treasury Holdings
- $4.2 trillion (as of the article)
- Fed's Recent Action
- Promised to buy more Treasury bills starting January