Archive · 11 Sep 2026
Analyst Says Crude’s $110 Spike Will Settle Lower
Oil prices recently climbed close to $110 per barrel.
Mukesh Sahdev says this jump probably will not last.
He expects prices to move mostly between $70 and $90.
He believes war-related uncertainty is making prices change quickly.
Oil shipments are also harder to track than before.
This makes it difficult to know exactly how much oil is being traded.
China might buy more oil if some refiners receive extra export quotas.
However, because oil is still flowing through the market, Sahdev expects the price spike to fade.
Mukesh Sahdev expects crude oil prices to settle between $70 and $90 a barrel.
He said the recent move toward $110 was driven by geopolitical uncertainty and unclear oil-market conditions.
Sahdev said prolonged conflict-related disruptions could keep prices near the upper end of that range.
Untracked or difficult-to-track oil shipments reportedly rose to about 65% in August from 30-40% earlier.
Additional quotas for some Chinese refiners could bring China back as a source of oil demand.
- Who
- Mukesh Sahdev, Founder and CEO of X-analysts, offered the outlook.
- What
- He said crude oil’s rise toward $110 a barrel is likely to ease, with prices settling around $70-$90.
- When
- The outlook concerns the recent price surge; the article also cites shipment data from August.
- Where
- The market is being affected by disruptions related to the West Asia conflict, with China potentially supporting demand.
- Why
- Geopolitical uncertainty, unclear oil flows, difficult-to-track shipments and possible Chinese refinery quotas are influencing prices.
- Recent price level
- Crude oil surged toward $110 a barrel.
- Expected range
- Sahdev expects prices to oscillate between $70 and $90 a barrel.
- Main driver
- Heightened geopolitical uncertainty and limited visibility into the oil market.
- Conflict impact
- A prolonged West Asia conflict could keep prices closer to the upper end of the expected range.
- Dark trade share
- Difficult-to-track oil shipments reportedly rose to around 65% in August from 30-40% earlier.
- Potential demand support
- Additional quotas for some Chinese refiners could allow China to return as a buyer.
- Supply condition
- Sahdev said oil continues to flow through the market, which could limit further price increases.