Archive · 8 Oct 2026
India Retail Inflation Seen Reaching 23-Month High in September
Prices in India may have risen faster in September than they did in August.
Economists surveyed by Mint expect inflation to reach 5.6%.
Food prices are a major reason, with vegetables and other foods adding pressure.
Energy and raw-material costs may also make some goods more expensive.
Part of the increase may happen because prices were lower in the same month last year.
The Reserve Bank of India recently raised its key interest rate to 5.5%.
It also signalled that rate cuts are unlikely soon.
The government is expected to release the September inflation figures on 12 October.
A Mint poll of 19 economists forecast September retail inflation at 5.6%, up from 4.8% in August.
The expected figure would be the highest in 23 months and the first above 5% since December 2025.
Rising food prices, energy costs and an unfavourable comparison with last year are expected to lift inflation.
The RBI raised its repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.5% and shifted its stance to “calibrated tightening.”
Official September inflation data is due on 12 October; the RBI forecasts inflation averaging 6% in October-December.
- Who
- Indian consumers and the Reserve Bank of India; the forecast is based on a Mint poll of 19 economists.
- What
- Retail inflation is forecast to rise to 5.6% in September, from 4.8% in August.
- When
- September 2026; official data is scheduled for release on 12 October.
- Where
- India.
- Why
- Higher food and energy costs, raw-material prices and an unfavourable base effect are expected to push inflation higher.
Factors behind the forecast rise
How to interpret the rise
Food prices and underlying pressure
Factors behind the forecast rise
Economists cited rising prices across vegetables, cereals, pulses, edible oils, sugar and protein-rich foods as evidence that pressure extends beyond a few volatile items.
How to interpret the rise
Economist Sujan Hajra said part of the expected increase is mechanical, because food prices fell in the same month last year, rather than reflecting a fresh worsening in underlying pressures.
Energy costs and future inflation
Factors behind the forecast rise
Economist Dhiraj Nim said persistent energy and input costs could be passed on to consumers and add to core inflation; the article also notes crude oil again crossed $100 per barrel in early September.
How to interpret the rise
The article says the expected September increase is not entirely due to current food-price rises, and that some of it reflects the comparison with last year. It does not provide a specific opposing forecast on energy pass-through.
- Forecast September CPI inflation
- 5.6%
- August CPI inflation
- 4.8%
- Economists polled
- 19
- Forecast range
- 5%-5.9%
- RBI repo rate after increase
- 5.5%, following a 25-basis-point hike
- RBI inflation target
- 4% medium-term target; a 2%-6% tolerance band
- Official data release
- 12 October
- RBI October-December forecast
- Average CPI inflation of 6%