Archive · 25 Sep 2026
Budget Smartphones Face 40% Decline Below ₹20,000 by 2030
Very cheap smartphones may become harder to find by 2030.
A research report says phones costing under $200, or about ₹20,000, could lose around 40% of their sales.
More than 230 million yearly shipments in this price group could disappear from stores worldwide.
Making these phones is becoming more expensive because chips and memory cost more.
Companies also want to focus less on products that bring in small profits.
Some people may keep their old phones longer or buy refurbished ones instead.
Other buyers may use payment plans to afford more expensive phones.
This could make it harder for people in lower-income areas to get their first personal smartphone and access the internet.
More than 230 million annual smartphone shipments priced below $200, or ₹20,000, could disappear from worldwide retail channels between 2025 and 2030.
Counterpoint Research projects the budget smartphone segment will shrink by about 40% by 2030.
Higher chipset and memory costs, stronger baseline hardware requirements, and reduced manufacturer participation are pressuring low-profit devices.
Consumers are delaying upgrades, keeping phones longer, buying refurbished devices, or using installment plans to purchase costlier models.
Global smartphone shipments may recover to roughly 1.2 billion units by 2030, but higher-priced phones are not expected to replace all lost budget volume.
- Who
- Smartphone manufacturers, consumers, and Counterpoint Research are involved in the forecast; Yang Wang provided an analyst assessment.
- What
- The global smartphone segment priced below $200, or ₹20,000, is projected to shrink by about 40%, with more than 230 million annual shipments potentially disappearing by 2030.
- When
- The projected decline is expected between 2025 and 2030, following a sector slowdown projected for 2026–2027.
- Where
- Worldwide, with particular connectivity concerns for developing and lower-income markets.
- Why
- Rising component costs, higher hardware requirements, limited margins, longer replacement cycles, and manufacturers reducing their presence in low-profit markets are weakening the budget segment.
- Price threshold
- Below $200, or approximately ₹20,000
- Projected segment decline
- About 40% by 2030
- Shipments at risk
- More than 230 million annual shipments
- Projection period
- 2025 to 2030
- Total smartphone shipments in 2030
- Approximately 1.2 billion units
- Key cost pressures
- Mobile chipsets, memory, and more demanding baseline hardware
- Consumer responses
- Delayed upgrades, longer phone lifespans, refurbished purchases, and installment plans