Archive · 25 Sep 2026
Carney Says Canada Must Consider Extreme US Military Risk
Canada’s prime minister, Mark Carney, said his government has thought about a very unlikely possibility.
He said the United States could someday use military force while pursuing Donald Trump’s idea of making Canada the 51st state.
Carney stressed that this is not what he expects to happen.
He said leaders should still prepare for very serious risks.
Canada and the United States are also arguing about tariffs on goods.
Their trade talks broke down on August 21.
Carney said he and Trump continue to speak often.
He believes better relations and new trade talks may still be possible.
Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada considered the extreme possibility of US military action.
Carney described military intervention as risk management, not the expected outcome.
Donald Trump has repeatedly discussed making Canada the 51st US state.
Trade negotiations between Canada and the United States collapsed on August 21 amid tit-for-tat tariffs.
Carney said he and Trump still speak frequently and could eventually resume trade negotiations.
- Who
- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and US President Donald Trump.
- What
- Carney said Canada has considered the extreme possibility of US military action linked to Trump’s 51st-state goal.
- When
- Carney made the remarks in a New York Times interview after trade talks collapsed on August 21.
- Where
- The issue concerns relations between Canada and the United States.
- Why
- Carney said considering an unlikely military scenario is responsible risk management amid trade and diplomatic tensions.
Risk-Management View
Diplomatic-Relations View
How seriously to treat military action
Risk-Management View
Carney said it would be irresponsible for Canada not to examine the possibility of US military action as an extreme risk.
Diplomatic-Relations View
Carney also said military action is not the base case and described the scenario as remote or highly unlikely.
Statehood statements and bilateral relations
Risk-Management View
Trump’s repeated 51st-state comments, tariffs and the collapse of trade talks have sharply strained relations, prompting concern in Canada.
Diplomatic-Relations View
Carney said he and Trump maintain a direct, functional relationship and that cooperation and renewed trade negotiations may still be possible.
Canada’s defense response
Risk-Management View
Canada has boosted defense spending amid concerns about the imbalance between the two militaries and the possibility of conflict.
Diplomatic-Relations View
The articles present military action as an extreme scenario while emphasizing that the two countries remain close trade and military partners.
- Canadian prime minister
- Mark Carney
- US president
- Donald Trump
- Trump’s stated goal
- Making Canada the 51st state of the United States
- Trade negotiations
- Talks collapsed on August 21
- Military comparison
- The United States has more than two million active-duty and reserve troops, while Canada has fewer than 200,000
- Submarines
- The United States had 65 military submarines in 2024, compared with Canada’s four
- Leader communications
- Carney said he and Trump have spoken frequently since the trade talks ended
