Archive · 23 Jul 2025
RBI: Oil Price Spike Could Raise India's Inflation
Imagine that the cost of oil goes up around the world.
A new study says that if this happens, prices of things in India might go up a little bit, too.
This is because India buys a lot of oil from other countries.
Researchers looked at how oil prices affect India, especially after recent world events.
They found that even though the government tries to keep prices stable, oil price changes still have an impact.
To help, the study suggests using other types of energy to protect India's economy in the long run.
Although there are challenges, India's inflation has been kept under control recently, with prices of food helping to keep them down.
RBI research indicates a 10% rise in global oil prices could increase India's inflation by 20 basis points.
The study, 'Revisiting the Oil Price and Inflation Nexus in India,' examines oil price impact on India's economy.
India's reliance on oil imports makes it vulnerable to global energy price shocks.
The RBI suggests long-term measures like transitioning to alternative fuel sources.
Despite risks, India's inflation remained below 4% for five months until June 2025.
- Who
- RBI researchers Sujata Kundu, Soumasree Tewari, and Indranil Bhattacharyya.
- What
- A study by RBI researchers on oil prices and inflation in India.
- When
- Published in the Reserve Bank of India's July 2025 Bulletin.
- Where
- India
- Why
- To assess the impact of global crude oil prices on India's inflation and inform monetary policy.
Concern over Inflation
Monetary Policy Effectiveness
Impact of Oil Prices
Concern over Inflation
Rising oil prices could worsen the already challenging inflation landscape.
Monetary Policy Effectiveness
While risks exist, India's monetary policy has so far been effective in maintaining inflation within the target band.
- Study Title
- "Revisiting the Oil Price and Inflation Nexus in India"
- Authors
- Sujata Kundu, Soumasree Tewari, Indranil Bhattacharyya
- Inflation Impact
- 10% oil price rise = 20 bps inflation increase
- Inflation Rate (Until June 2025)
- Below 4%
- Focus
- Inflation and Monetary Policy