Archive · 16 Nov 2025
India, China, Russia May Trade Energy in Local Currencies Amid Dollar Instability
Imagine countries like India, China, and Russia trade a lot of energy, like natural gas.
Usually, they pay in US dollars.
But, a study suggests that if the US dollar becomes wobbly or if the US uses its dollar power too much for politics, these countries might decide to trade energy using their own money instead.
This could happen because the US has a lot of power with the dollar, and they can sometimes put rules or sanctions on other countries.
The study also talks about how the US is planning to sell more of its natural gas, but this might make some buyers nervous.
Meanwhile, other countries like Qatar are just trying to sell their gas at a good price.
Sometimes, problems in one place can make prices jump everywhere, which makes energy less predictable for big buyers like China and India.
Also, other energy sources like solar power or coal are becoming stronger competitors to natural gas.
Countries like India, China, and Russia may increase energy trade using local currencies if the US dollar becomes less stable, according to OIES.
The US dollar's dominance in global finance gives the US significant influence, including the ability to impose sanctions.
The politicization of energy trade by the US administration, particularly concerning LNG exports, could potentially hinder market growth.
Qatar aims to offer its LNG purely as a commercial product in a competitive market, contrasting with the US approach.
Global energy markets are interconnected, meaning price crises in one region can affect others, impacting long-term commitment to fuels like LNG, especially with competition from renewables and coal.
- Who
- Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES), India, China, Russia, US, Qatar
- What
- Projection that India, China, and Russia may increase energy trade in local currencies due to potential US dollar instability and the politicization of energy markets.
- When
- The projection is based on current trends and potential future shifts in the global economy and energy markets, with implications for the coming years.
- Where
- Global energy markets, with specific mention of India, China, Russia, US, and Qatar.
- Why
- Potential US dollar instability, US flexing its dollar dominance, politicization of energy by the US administration, and the desire by major players to reduce reliance on US clearing institutions and sanctions.
US LNG Strategy
Market Realities
Market Growth Potential
US LNG Strategy
The Trump administration's aggressive pursuit of LNG export markets, linked to foreign policy, may politicize trade and diminish long-term growth.
Market Realities
Lower LNG prices are expected to drive faster demand growth in Asian markets where price responsiveness outweighs decarbonization policies.
Economic Underpinnings
US LNG Strategy
The US LNG sector's vulnerability to rising costs suggests fragile underlying economics amid a potential global gas price downturn.
Market Realities
Qatar aims to maximize its low-cost LNG portfolio as a purely commercial offer in an increasingly competitive market.
- Publish Date
- November 16, 2025
- Key Institutions
- Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES)
- Projected Trend
- Increased energy trade in local currencies by India, China, and Russia if the US dollar becomes less stable.
- US LNG Dominance
- US is projected to nearly double installed LNG capacity by 2030.
- Competitors to Gas
- Renewables (China, Europe), Coal (India, Asia)